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2009-09-14 Joint meetingG~ O O N ~~ '~M W W H W z H W W A 0 h z 0 v a~ ',~' p4 O O N A~~ W V ~ V b o ~ rN y W O a, N-+ p W ~ w ~ C O ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ e-I ~ t_f) M ~ ~ ~ ~ M N ~ ~ ~ ~ cF+ ~ C~ G~ ~ ~ ~ ~ M N ~ ~ ~ ~ v ~ .~ ~ ~ ,~ ~ ° ~ o 0 ~ o w ~ ~ ~ •~ ~ r--~ ~ ~' •~ o V ~ v ~ ~ ~ v ~ ~ v ~ O C7 ° ' C7 O c C7 E~ `J~~ ~, ). 'y ~" r'f 0 .~,,, 0 C~ w °'I o~ C~ O `~`\ V/ ~ d~ G~ di N O O O O O O O N O o0 ~ di N O r-1 e-~ a~u~u~ ~ua~~ad O w O O O N O O ~ r W C1 O O N i y~ O L C Z C 2. ~ y s~~J O .~ UI 'N v O ++ y ~ ~ ~~~rr rtil H V ~ a~ ~ ~ V I ~ ~1.~ ~ ~ N (.~ N '~'' ~ ~ C~ o~ ~ O ,~ N N O efi ~ 1 O O 1 '~ ~' ~' . _. o ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ cV O cn ~ O 1 1 1 1 1 ~ O F --1 ~'---1 -= M .• ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ f~ C~ '~ ~ . ~ V . ~ `~ ~ w ~ •~ V w ~ ~ O N c'n L; ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ u _ ~ _ ~ _ 0 v O G~ . r..~ ~ ., '~ . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ G a • ~ .~ ~ ,.,, ,: .' °;u, _ b4Y ~~-' ~s. _~~ i ~"~ ~~~ , << (z ~ ( :3 • v o~ o~ 0 N .-1 O O u Cl) U .~' V d+ N di QO N M N N ~ .. _ . _ ,. o~ M {f} di O O O O O O O 00 ~ L~ ~ ~ I.n L!') s~~IIop 3o suoijiitu M O N N O N t--1 N O O N O O N ~t~ ^~ y2~. c z ~r ` s~ a~ ,~bo 0 0 ~_ '~ '~ v . ~, ~.. 0 '~ v o.~ ~o m 0 N 0 w o~ v o~ s o~ a o~ ~,'! w a~ z o~ C~ X H ~. O .., cd '~ ~r O u v ~; ~o ff3 0 N ~..a N PQ 00 X H G1 .--, ^~^1 ^W W ~\ ~ ~ O ~ X ~, ~ v ~ 0 l ` O ^~ W u O ~r G1 0 X H G1 W ~--~ 41 N M G1 M N 0 di N O M C `j~r~ T d. ~y ff /~. ~HJ l v G C U N 0 0 '~ 0 0 o~ '~ -~: „~b4 O O G m -.,, U • `~ ~' 'N o~ 'N `N~ !i 0 V ~ N 0 ~ ~ ~ c O ~ ~ ~ ~ CA .~ ~ y ~ ~ ~ ~ (J ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .~ '~ ~ v ~ '~ •~ ~ O ~ z ~ua~~ad v , O O N O O N O O N O N O O N O N O 0 N N O N O N O O O O N O ~~Y %~~ y` '~~~J '~ 0 .~ o~ 0 . ", U .~ '~ . ~., '~ O O O O O O O O O G~ 00 L~ ~ ~ di M N ~ o~ O U O .~. .~ `~ v .,.., ' ~ ~ o 0 ~/ ~ ch Gi0 X ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o O ~ •N N N O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 't~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ .. ~ a~u~u~ ~ua~~ad ~~a~ nano-a~a~ O O N 00 O N O O N O N O O N ~~~ 2` ~s Sri {J c.~ a~ bo . ,., N 0 o~ .~ C~ '~ 0 .~ 0 . ~, o~ v °i '~ .~ O O O O O O O O O O O O . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ O o0 ~ d~ N O N ~ ~ 00 O v 1 O O N • 'N 0 'N 'N 0 .~.; Cl~ 0~+~ e~ 0 Oi0 O O N 0 ~ ~ ~ v O ~ ~ c c N ~ ~ ~ ~ O pp ~ ~ ~ a ~ G'~ Gj N ~ N '~ ~ can ~ O `~ ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ '„ V .~ O O O O O O O N O N N i ~ i ~ i a~u~~~ ~ua~~ad a~a~-nano-~~a~ CcJ 5 ~Y IJ ~/f ~~ o~ 00 a~ bo .~ 0 0 ~-7 '~~ 0 .~ 0 .~ v o~ '~ .!„ '~ .~, o~ o~ v .~„ ~Y '~ o~ .~ 0 o~ a .-. C~ O M ~~ N H y N y ~ N ~'! s ^~., y I O N ~ ~ ~1 7 O O N L~ v~ v ~ r o O O N ~~ ~ c '- ~ c N ~ ~ d! ~ 3 ~' c ° x o.~~ ~ o N ~~ 0 v ~t ~~„~ I ~ ~ N ~ C ;,i ` p N O O N ~""+ p p p O O I..C) I O O O i O O Ln p ~ O N ~ r-I ~~' a~u~u~ ~ua~~ad ~~a~-nano-a~a~ ~- J O ~ O In ~~~ t _2 ~,s '/~'~N:~ O .~ O .~ v -Oi U ..., .~ G '~ o~ o~ x ~-.~ 'N v o~ 0 U 'N O O ^~ W V v O ^V^' rW V J C~ ~ I ~%) a}~~ ~~u~~~n r~ • p.~ ^~ NW W V • p.~ W O :~ `~ r ~~ ~s. ~~; ~r ''N:) 0 0 o~ ~° O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N O 00 ~ d~ N O ~ ~ (s~~a) ~}n1o,~~ ~C 0 C O O O O O N t -~ 00 ~ di N O i [~ i~aa 0 0 0 0 c a0 t~ ~ -- '~ U O ~ O ` ~ O ~ N - '~ do O ~ N .^ .^ Y/ ~ ~ cV o r+ O ~, O N ~ ~ o ~ o ~ L~ L~ N .~ M M ~ M ~ ~ o C ~ o ~ O O a ~ ° of a ~; ~ v ~ ~ ~ c o °' • ~., ~ +. N A U ~ o ~ ~_ ~ ~ ~ ~ .._ _ c ? ~ O O ~ C7 N o . , ~ v N ( ~ .~ !~ ~ ~ . N ~ ~ ~ ~ ,~ O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O ~ ~ O Oi0 ~ di N N ~ ~ 00 0 ~ M-~ (auii) siio~z~~d tua~3uou ut a~u~u~ ~ (s~~Q) IL~Id O O O O O O O O ~ `O Il) ~ di d+ M M '~ 4~ ¢' .. ~ .--. O ~ N O W ~ ~~ O ~ ~~ N +- .-~ V ~ O~ O O O N O O N O O N O O N O O N I..n O O N d~ O O N O N O O N O N O O O N ~~ r~ /~,. i~ ~ riH J J '~ o.~ v o~ ~o m ..,, `~ 0 . ~, U o> U .,~, . ,,,, O O O O O O O O O O O~ oQ l~ ~ ttj d+ M N ~ O (auii) ~uau~~oiduzaun pjai~a~sau~ ~]~ •__` 0 '~, o~ +~ a~ -~.~ .~ M~M `S) I~ /r_ . . l'J r-~ •~ O ~~ ~ i U rw O Ly o~ T O o a~ v ~ :~ ~ ~ v w p ' ° ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ :~ ° N `" '" ~ ~ O 00 ~ V 0 O ~Y r~ ~j~ T~' {J !~ O ~ 5 I~ V J • ~ x O ~ ~ V '~ v ,- ~ W ~ .,.., ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ C a w ~ ,~ ~ c H V 't~ O ~ `~„~ '~ to e~ ~ ~ ~; V cn ~ ~ `~ .~ .~ .~., c ~' 0 0 O ~ ~ v ''~ ~ .r" v v ~ "' O ~ GO G~ '~ ~ ~f}- ~ -N~J}- • .,~ • ~ • c~ ~-'`" s, ~>Y' ,,i~ _/; • • V ~v O 'N -E.~ 'N V ~~~ ~--1 ~~+~ r~--I -1-~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ''"' V ~ O u c~ ~ ~ a~ ~ ~ ~ X ~ ~ V . ~.., ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~' ~ ~ 4~ ~ r--~ ~ ~ .O ~ ~ c~ ~ ~~ • V • ~ -~ ~V ~ r---+ • ~ V ~-1 ~ r,Q ~ O ~ ~ V ~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ '-~ O ~ • ~ ~ ~ c~ :~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ .O u ~ ;~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~X ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O V ~ ~ •~ 4~ O ~ ~ '-~ x ~ a~ a~ ~ W W ~ ~ ~ • • • ~ • .i ti 0 z o~ '~ o~ v o~ ~o O a.+ ~ v ~ ~ ~ c~ ,~~.+ ,,.., w O ~ u O .~.+ ~ v '~ b A ~ ~ ~ ~ W y ~ ~ ~ .~ .~ S~ bA ~ ~ •~ `~"' O ~ ~, w O ~ ~ -~ v ~ ~ ~ ~ v ~ ~ u ~ ~ ^ ~' .S1 O ~ N Rt ~ ~ ~ '~ v ~ v ~~ ~~ ~~ ~ 'O O .,.., .,.., N .O N {f} O .,.y N W O C/1 O ~ ~ ~ ~ `~ ~ 0 ~~ ~ ~' ~ v ~, ~ v u ~ '~ cn ~ N `}' ~ O ~ ~ O 0Q O '~ v ap ~ ~ ~ ~ :.t~ 7 ~Y` ~` /~ I {J rV_~] -_ `/ r_ ~I '~, '~ 4~ ~I.~ U 0~ •O V/ O ~~ ~~ ~~ T O P" O O ~~ ^ , O O =' J- i C~ ~+-~ N ~-+ F"'a ~ . ~..~ 0 ^~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U ~ `~' ~O ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ H rwT W r~1J` ` V W •~ f~ '~ • O :+-~ .~ w N • fA~t ' W `T rTw"~'~, W ~`n'^1 `~ •~ • u u .,._, • -I--+ W c~c , l1^1 fA'^' W cO }~ ~J ` V .~ .,.., • . ~..~, di • fA~' ' W W • O _L~ O E~ • Q a~ • rw~' ' W W !~ ~~ • O O .,._, Q .,.., • Q bA 0 u • `~~ m~ ~s J e'er r~ NNv t~ v ``~ 0 :~ a .~ o~ 0 0 .~ '~ ~. 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H r--~ O .,..~ 4~ ~ ~ ~ O .~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ 0~ ~. • ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 4~ O ti *~ ~ ~ ~ -~ ~ ~ o • V v J • bA ~ .~ ~ ~ ~ _~ V V ~ ~ ~: ~ N '~ ~ ~ c~ ~ bA ~ ,~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ +, ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ -~ ~ 4 O ~ V ~ -~-' •r-, ~ p V ~ ~-+ ~~,,,, O O ~ U ~1 0 a~ .O . ,~~., C1 4~ .,.., v c~ .~ ~~~ -ti ~~` f y~~J .J O 'N `~1 ~+ U ti N .,.., .,.., c~ cn ~ ~ . ~ ~i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .~ 0 ~ c~ cn O ~ ,..~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ a, . ~ .a' ~ ~ O ~ , ~ ~ V b.A .~ u .~ Q .~ V O O b.A ....a V V V a V . ,~.--~+ r-ir--1 r ~--I -~-~ . ~..~ c~ c~ .,.., 4~ cn 'L~ V O 0 •~ o ~ V -~-+ C~ r--~ .,..,.i O -~ .,.., .~ -~-+ O U • °" =2, ~Y ``' ~,~ 1 ~. 0 v 'N O Q •~ -a--+ ~ ~ Q C~ 4~ • r, ~ +, 4~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ a~ ~ ~ .~ ~ p ~ O ~ ~ ~ V 4~ ~ '~ V ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~.~ ~~ .~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o . ~' ~ ° •~ ~ ~ p ~ -" ~ o ~ o ~ .~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ cn c~ ~ • ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ •o Q ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ ~ cn ~ ~ o ~ cn ~ ~, • C/) .O .~ V ~ ~ O ~ -+~-~ ~ V ~ ~ 0 0 ~ N 0 0 ~ ~, V ~ ~ o •v bA ~ o ~ ~ ,~ ~~` z yy ~,` ,s ~ ., O 'N ~1 .~ v v O • O ~ Z ~ °' o ~ ~, ~ a~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ O • ~ O ~ ~ ~, N ~ Z ~ ~ ,4; `~ ~ •.~ ~ ~ -~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ N a~ ~ ~ ~ ,~ ~ ~ ~ V ~ -~' - ~ ~ '~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ ~ ~ ~ Z cry O cry a 0 u 0 4~ i .,.., -N .,..~ w .~ a~ .,.., V c~ t '~ 4~ a~ w O O J~ /Lt^ ~ ,`~ O ~ ~ 0 0 r--~ ~ V ~ a~ . ~.., •~ V ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ :~ O ~ ~ ~ 4~ ~~a---~-++ ~ ~ -----1 V ~ ~ ~ v ~Y 6 -~ ~z /~'~~J • • 0 'N `~ 'N V v O .~ O 'N ~~ r"' -1--+ Cn C~ ~ r--~ v ~ (~ ~~ V w ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N -~' `~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o u ~ O ~ '~ 4~ ~ ~ ~ ~ V ~ ~ .+-~ -~ .,._, bA ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ U U . r..~ -~--~ V . ~..~ ~^ ~-+~ V ~1--~ .,~.~ .,.., ~ `~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ b~.A ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~, ~ ,'~ =y ~~~ y~ 1 ~~,:~ .. ~. e~ O 0 O O O O N `mil V 'N v ~ ~ o -° o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ •~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~j ~ ~ ~ ,~ 'N tSr W o N V O .,.., .~ Q~ v ~ ~ ~ O . ~ `~ ~ Q ~ .~ '~ ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ Qom,., ~ ~ ~ ~ ''~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Q p O , ,~ ~ H ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c/~ O :+-~ c~S .~ 0 ~SY_ i Z K /`~ y/r~~iJ l vi y.- 'N 0 x W V c~ '~ bA cC~ .O ccY . r, O O O c~ .,..~ '~ 4~ bA c~ .,.., 3 T O 4~ O O c~ .~ c~ N 4~ _~ c~ O c~ 'L~ .~ -~ u .~ .~ a .,.., ~~ r--~ .~ c~ N c-~ 4~ O O .,._, O .,..,, N ~--~ c~ O .,..~ . *..~ a~ di c~ 04 N i OQ i ~--~ .~ .O O e~ e-~ x A titY ^v . ry ~ ~z Gr i~i~ r_~^' ~V ' `^' ,AY\/ N 00 4~ .~ O 'N `~ o~ ~. 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O ~l v .~ O ~i•~ 4~ ti 0 W .~ 'v ~ O v '~ O - `~ cn ~ •,~ ~ O ~ v '-' +' v ~ ~~ ~~~ ~~ O~v V ~ ~ V O W V O O O 't~ ,~, V ~ N ~ V ~~ w ~ ~ ~ ~ ~- ~ -~ .~ ~ v ~ o 0 ,0 ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~~ V ,~ v v ~ ~ ~ o .r., ° Q ~ ~ V a.+ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u V ~ ~ G ~ ~ w ~ ~ A ~, o ~, ~ o U ~ U .._. _ ;: v ~ vi ~„~ ~ ~ ,s~ v ,a; c ~ ~ ~ ~ a' W .~; ~ bA ~ ~ x ~ ~ H v ~ ~ O 'N `~ U 4~ `N~j !i 0 W 0 'N `~ ~~ •~ V a~ a A ~ r~ ~ vJ / }.) • ~O ~ W ~ ~ O O ~ ~ •~ \/ ~ ~ 1"1 /~ wel ITS `U "i ` , ~ rn~ ++ O ~ Cn ~"'~ ~ ~ bA u J 1"1V ../ W ~ ~ ~ ~ CJ b1J ,~ ~ ' ~ ~ u O ~' cn ~ ~ ~ ~ pA ~ $. , ~ .+~ ° ~.., J ° ' o 'u . ~ v ~ ; ~ w ~ ~ V ~ ~ ~ ~ •~ O ~-. ~ ~ u ~ O c~ ~ cG ~ ~ ' . . ~ .~ o ~ ~, ~, ~ ~ ~ ° ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o v ~ v ~ ~v O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O SY. ~5' ~ ? ~j.. /~t y' iJ ~~ • r l • ~ .~.+ ,O ~ ~ ~ v v, .~ ~ ~~ O ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ 4~ ~ ~ b~A O ~ . ~..~ ~ ~ W ~ '~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ,O ~ O O (T^y ,yV`' !~~ ~ ~ ~iI '~~,.~ ~ ~ c~ O ~ O .~ ~ ~ a~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O .,.., U, ~..., ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ cc~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ V ~ ~ ~ ~' o ,~ ~ ~ c~ ''~ .{..~ O ~ ~~ O .~ p ~ '~ ~ •~ ~ p ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ +, ~ . ~ ~ ,,.~ o v ~ ~ '~ ~ ~ ~-~, ~ ~ ~ ~w ~ ~ ~ u ~ ~ ~ p W ~,, ~, ~ ~ c1~ ~ O V .,,. i` ~` ~r f ~i¢~ o~ v 'N 4~ O 4 4~ rv 4~ U • •~ •~ V `~ •~ O ~ O O ,.~ ~ ~ 4J ~ V .~ • ~"'~ ~ ~ ~ 4~ ~ ~ ~ 0 O ~ .O ~,,,,~ • ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 .}'~"., ~ ~ O W ~ ~ ~ -r--' • r.-~ V c~ ~ ~ • *-~ V 4~ '~ ~ ~ V ~ ~ O -F-+ Cn V -'-~ c~ O Q„~ O • ~+ cVn ~ ~ ~ ~ +~ ~ a~ ~ ~""'~ V -a-+ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ W ~ a~ . ~ SY y !~ ~h, Jr J 4~ .~ oa 4~ '~ o~ a~ V '~,J~` ` V O v V ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ O N ~ ,~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U ~ ~ • ~--~ f..-.i ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .~ \°~ ~ ~' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ cn ~ N ~ ~ ~ ~ U U °' ,~ ~ ~ o ~-. ~ ~ ~ .~ ~ .~ ~ ~ ~ a as ~ O ~ • V • • .~ cn _~ z y~ /~~~ ;r~H~ .! V .~, 4~ 0 <U l~ 0~ 4~ U • ~w V J O O O O O O J~ _I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ y~ O ~ ~ ~ 0 ~+ ~ ~ ~ V ~ ~ ~ ~ V .~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ 4~ ~ ~ C~ • • •~ O /w' V J C/^~ vJ ~J ~J vJ^ 1_~ J- 1 ~ V 4~ ~ ~ ~ ~ V 4~ X ~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ O ~ ~~~ ~~a~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ V ~ ~ ~ ~ • ~ cCS U) V .,..~ 4~ • SY ~. -~` ~` s v~~ii/J l 0 +•~ !Q Q Q N v v .~ 0 c 0 v w O Z O i _V A~ Y Z m W W t/1 W J W W W 0 J Q V W C J Q m 0 z 0 x v O O V .~ O C O V W ^~ Z `~ r LZ r U ~ CO I~ O O O ~ N M ~ N N N N M M M M N N N N ' O O C N X ~ ._ ~.; N m U N ~ "O ~ ~ m +~ C ~ W' i U N ~ ~ _ i ~ O ~ p .~ O O ~ ~ O N= L~ Z O _ O O Y O ~~ O Q L.L N ~, O> j ~, ~ ~- °~ ~ U "r a ~ .Q ~ o c ~ U ~ J ~ N ~ O ++ f0 O ,Q >, ~ G1 i C C 0 0 fB Y~ .f6 N~~ ~ ~ J c=~ ago °-~:«= C Z U U Q Q W J~ L J ~ Cfl f~ 00 O r- N M M M M M~~ M ~ ~ M~ In co f~ ap O O ~- N M ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d' ~ l(7 In In U . O N C fn = ~ . N r.. fA .-. ~ ~ Q C O N (0 N U E O f6 X O O~ O ~~ : C C O O U ~~ Q ~ 7 ~~ ~~ N U O ~ a~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C ~ ~ f/1 +O-' ~ ca ~ ' m O ~ A~ ~~ a aa ° ~ ~ ~ ~Y W ~ ~ ~ a - c~ o ~+a ~ W o v ~ tl Y ~ o > ~ ~ ~ ~ OO ~ ~ >, ~ ~, ~ •~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ , ~ L ~ ~ -~ ~ W ~ ~ ~• ~ U L ~ a°' a~a~~ _ //~~ T ~ ~ I..L g~~.~ .Q Q ~ ~cn c ~ c ~ c c Qm~c~ o~w va`c~c~~ ~~~wii~~ •~~c~~~w 0 ~ C L _ ~ M ~ ~ CO I~ M O ~- N M ~ to M r r T r r r r O U ~ N ~. ~ f0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ d ~ N O L ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ (6 .r ~- ~ ~ .-. C f0 ~ U O ~ _ +~ ~ ~ O fn (0 +. C > O ~ ~ J m '~ C N "'' C O N a ~ "a O O Q X ' N O "~ N >+ O ~ Q O C a. W o~ ~ 2 O x O C U 'p O f~ >, 0 L ~ LL a' O U W Z 0 U~ N N C ~ f0 0 L ~ ~ N ~ (6 + `~ ~, ._ .~ to O O L ~ LL ~~_ ~~ O •.+ .• C O C C O ~ p o U '> o ?_~ N~ ~ ~ m a~ U O~~ N vOj N N = O _ O ~ Q ~ ca O O ~ j ~ "~ ~ O 7 ca ca ~ c c6 .~ Li c~ c o~ o o c N N j Z c c a C v> o o ~ ~ ~ ~ tL n uL i ~ ~ N ~ C ca ~ ~ ~ ~ m O m a~ N~ .~ N •~ d a~ N a~ m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a °' ~ o > C7 2 = ~ I~ O O O ~- N M I ~ ~ ~ N N N N N O .O O : ~'C O C~ .~ U X x 0 s C ~ N ~ ~ ~ f6 ~ ~ C = • ~ X ~ ~ N O pC ~ N O ~ O ~ c O O O m (B C ~ f6 (n -O . O (6 C fn v O O Q' f4 !A ~ O Y o O O ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ C U 0 0 .~ O O ~' OD ~ C O N~ m N C7 N J L ~ U ~ `~ ,~ (n W ~ ~_ ~ ~ Q N ~ O~ O~ O O i W ~ ~ ~~ w U o °c ~ •~ ~ ~ ~ ai ~ o c ~, ~ ~ c ~ o c ~ W ~ _ f~ L ^~ ~~ O L c~ O O o7 ~- ~ 00 O ~ d' N N 00 ~ G7 r- ~ ~ ~ O ~ 00 ~ N In ~ In (p ~ O ~ p ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ ' ~ M O r ~ M N ~- ~ CO N CO ~ N o7 ~ ~ '~ N o7 ~ U' CO ' O o7 ('7 CO 00 O CU N CO L ~ M Cfl M ~ ('7 M N ('7 ' ' ~ pp o M ~ ~ ..~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ N o7 N lf~ f` N o7 v ~ 07 ~ M O I~ lI~ M O Co ~ ~ ~ I~ O ~ ~ ~ , N N ~ ~ ~ ~ M f` - ' a , , w c s p M c v ti In r ~ ~ O Co N DO I~ U ~ N N~ N M Cfl O ~ ~ M N ~ N v - N o7 07 a ~ = N o ct W = N Q ~ ~ ~ lf~ 0 00 ~ O Co M m ~ O C'1 ~ ~ O ~ tt ~ In N ~ M O W I~ CO ~ ~ ~ ' ~ Z Z Q ~ Z Z ~ 7 a ~ a cn ~ w ~ ~ U ~ L ~ L ~ W ~ ~ }, Q ~ J U Q ~ ~ N U N U ~ V Z ~ • ~ ~ W N ~ ~ •~ •~ p ~ O ~ O ~ ~ ~ U C C N fn N N }' ~ C ~S N ~ p - (~ ~ (!) (n ~ ~ W ~ N 5 o Q ~ .~ ~ ~ ~ ots ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ o x 7 ~ ~ o ~ i~ «° ~ o 0 0 ~ o ~ ~ C a ~ c c~ off ~ o o U ~ ~ ~ •~ o ~ o o ~ ~- C7 C7 ~ cn o ~ ~ ~ _U o a~i ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ o ~ cn ~ LL ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ • ~ ' Z (n ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ (n v J ~ U..~ 0 ~ ~ +~ ~ ~ LJJ ~ Q Q ~ O Q ~ W ~ •~--~ ~ ~ Z ~ w C~ C~ '~ W U Z ~ J U _T f6 C Q L c~ 2 .~ a c Q U 0 c 0 U W 0 c~ OD ~i U 0 ~~ z o o 2 ~o ~~ '~ m o . Y ° z ~ ¢_ V m C W W W J Q W W L.L W V L ^ ~ 0 00 I` CD In '~ M N ~ O ~ N ('~ ~, ~ CO f~ N ~ O a~ L m 0 C U N i 00 f~ CO ~ ~ M N ~- O ~ N M ~ ~ Cfl f~ i ~ i i i i i O O N O O N O O N 1 O O N O O O N O O N O O N M O O N N O O N r O O N 1~ U y-. _~ f~ C Q a~ c~ 2 .N m C Q U O c 0 U W O N m ai U L c~ zo o` ~~ x • v o cc ~ ~~ om ~~ z~ ¢_ m W oc W t/1 W J Q W a w W O O O N W O O N ti O O N O O O N O O N W U O 0 ~ O N ~ } L ~ ~ M ~ } O O ~ O O O ~ N O N ~ CO 00 O N N r I I I I ~ ~ 1 ~ 00 CO d' N O N ~ CO 00 O r N r O r O N U >, ca c Q a~ ca 2 ca a~ m m U ai U L ''~^ vJ o~ z o o~ a V S `J 2 O I..L. m Y = Z ~ Q V m W W t/1 W J Q W W LL W S L .~ W O L C~ ~ ~ M N r O ~ N M ~ O ~ ~ I O N >, ~ p~ ~ O O ~ C f0 U ~I ~ o 0 ~ ' ~ M ~ O ~ ~ ~ O L (n ° ° ° U Q X = W ° a. ~~ ~ ~ , ~ ~ a °°' ° w U ~ a~ ~ ° o ° c ~ ~ ~ ~ U O ~ ~ L a~ ° r O N O O O W O O N 1 O O N O O O N 0 0 N O O N M O O CO ~ ~ M N ~ O ~ N M ~ N 1 1 I U :_. _~ f6 c Q L ca 2 N .N ~, m c Q U O C O U W ° m ai U L ••/°/~ VJ 0 z 0 x v o ~~ 11. O Y ° z Z ~ Q = m C W W {J1 W J W W W ~~ ~~ ^ O L I~ CO ~ ~ M N ~ O O O ~,, ~ N ~ N ~ ~ O O N U .~ C U L Z O O N 1 O C O ~ .~ N ~ 0 0 L U_ O to O ~ N ~ U X N N ^ L V J _~ O > O ~ N ~ L Q ~ O O N O ~ N ~ U M ~ O ~ O Z I~ CO N ~ M N ~ O N U _A (6 c Q a~ m 2 N .N T fB C Q U .~ O c 0 U W O N m U L ti 0 z 0 V 2 L~ Q r LL m Y ° z z~ m W W t/1 W J Q W 0 W L.L W N O 00 C4 d' N O N N ~ ~ ~ r- ~ 00 CO ~ O .~ J .~ O O U _> Q ~~ O O N C c¢~ G Y ~ ~~; ~ Q~ H °o ~ ~ ~., N i ~ ~ ~_ i J ~ ~ O~ L ~ 1 ti ~ 7 ~ ~ Q ~ i rn; ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ C Q (6 i ~ ~ i ~ ~ i L (~ ~ ' y' I Q I I I 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 I Y U ~ H ~ L ~ ~ ~ J ~ Y U ~ L N Q (6 '~ ~ o L ~ Q ~ ~ Q i i i i i i J O N O N O N O O N O O 0 N O O N O N O O N O 00 Cfl ~' N O 00 Cfl tt N N N ~ r ~- ~ ~ U :_~ c Q a~ c~ 2 N _T fQ C Q U .~ 0 c 0 U W O M~ W ai U L '0 v/ o~ zo O 2 V o CC ~ ~ m O Y ° Z ~ Q = wI~ V W OC W W N W J Q W W W F 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 M O 0 .~ N ^ C O O N O ^~ - ~ ~ -c_ ~ ~' C i ~ ~ i i i i i i i i i i i ~~ rn' rn~ ~~ rn~ ~~ o ~ ~~ ~~ o rn~ rn~ r. ~~ m; m~ ' ~ a~ ~ ~ o 2 rn~ c ~ ~ ~~ X~ W m ~ , c~ Q~ N' ~i (B ~ ~ ~ a~ ' >~ Q i i i i r N O O N 0 N O O tt) O N N M O 0 ^~ ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ (V ~ co co ~ci ~ci ~r ~ cYi W U w _a f~ C Q N t6 0 a~ 0 c 0 :. U O N Q f~ C O Z N U O D z a o~ ~~ 2 ^ v= ~~ '~+- m o . Y = Z ~ Q = m W W W J W W W F- ~t M N r- O O O ti O ~ ~' M N .~ 1 N ~ O 0 N ^~ ~ O VJ O O N W O O N O O N O O N O N ~' O N G O O ~ M N ~ O O M ti O ~ ~ M N N ~ r' r- ~ ~ O O O O O O O O r' ~ ~ ~ r- O O O O O O O O O r O N U A c Q m c~ 2 3 c~ m L ~./~ W U ai U L ''~^ VJ o~ z o o= ., ~_ x • V z o ~ ~ ~ ~ O ; Y ° z ~ Q = CO oVc W W {!1 W CC Q W 0 W LL W O 00 CO ~ N O 00 C4 d' N N r' r' ~ ~ ~ O O O O O ^ ~ ^~ .~ .~ ^ ~ ^ ~ N ~ r.. .~ a O C0 C ^ ~ ,~ ' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~v o 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 I I I I 1 I 1 1 I I 1 I 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 1 I I I 1 I rn' rnl I rn' r ~ L ~ ~~ 1 O~ L I .~ I ~ ~ O 1 1 r N 1 ~ I 1 I L 1 1 I ~1 c ~~ _~ ~~ 1 1 i (B 1 1 C C' Q ~ i 1 1 L ~ ~ ~ Q I 1 i i 1 1 r O N O O N O N O O N O O N V J O N V O O N O O O d0 CO ~ N O 00 CO ~ N N N r ~ r- ~- ~- O O O O U :_.. m c Q a~ 2 3 m m L m N C a~ U ai L ''0^ VJ Z O ~_ x V_ c ~ f LL O m Y i Z ~ Q = m s W W l/1 W J Q W w W O 00 CO ~ N O 00 (D ~ N (V ~ ~ ~- r ~ O O O O O .~ ^ ~ 1 N _ ca ^ N O N /~~ C V/ O_ ' ~ ~ ~ rn ~ ~ o i i i i i i rn~ rn; rn~ ~~ rn~ ~~ o~ L ~ ~ ~ Q ~ r 1 ~, ~~ 07~ C i ~~ i O ~ O i (B ~ O i C' C Q a~ O) ~ i i O ~ ~ ~ ' i Q i i O N O O O N ti O O N O O O N O N O O N M O ~~ O 00 CU ~ N O 00 CO ~ N N L (~j ~ r ~ ~ ~ O O O O U _T (B c Q m c~ 2 c~ m C m U ai U 7 O Z ~ o= a v 2 V c ~ ~ L.L m 0 ^ Y = z~ Q = m s W W N W J W W W ^ ^~ ^~ L O Z~ O ~ O O In O ~ O ~ O N ~ ~- ~ O ~ ~ ~ N N ('7 M ~t N ~ C~ o r a~ .. c~ c~ c c c~ m O a E 0 O ~ O ~ O ~ O In O N O M ~O CV r ~ 1 ~ ~ I 1 1 1 I I I O N O O N O O N O O N O O O O O O N rn U :_. _T (~ c Q L 2 .N _~ C Q U O c 0 U W w O 7 fd N 7 m ui U L 'Q vJ z o o` ~_ x V o ~ ~ li m O Y ° z z ~ ¢_ m W W t/1 W J Q W 0 W W 2 F~ L V L ^ L Z .~ O~ O~ O O In O~ O~ O lf) M N N ~ ~~ O~~ ~ N N M M ~t d' N ~ ~ ~ r a~ 0 •- 7 O H O l(~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O ll) M N N r- ~ ' ~ ~ N N M M~ d' O N M O O O O N O O N O O N O N M O O U :_. _~ C Q m` c~ 2 .N Q U .~ 0 c 0 U W 0 a~ m ai U L rr~^ v/ o~ z o o< V 2 `~ C J LL m Y ° Z ~ m W W N W cc J Q W W ~. w s E~ 000 ~ ~ N O 000 COO ~ M M M M M N N N O a O ^ .~ L V .~ a~ a~ L 0 Z ~~ ^ L r O N 0 O N W O N ti O 0 N 0 0 0 N O O N M O O O O O O O O O O N M M (~ (N ~ N N N U _~ f6 c Q a~ c~ 2 m U ai U L r~ V/ o~ z o o= ~~ x • v o ~~ '-'- m o Y °z Z ~ Q = m c W W W J oc W 0 w W F L 0 ^ L 0 N N M M ~ ~ ~ ~ ~p ~ ~ O r O N ~~ O _~ N N V/ O O N W N ti O O N 0 0 N O O N ~t N M O O N U ::. A f6 c Q m c~ 2 c~ a~ L M~ W U ai U L Q o~ z o o= a V _• ~o oc ~ IL < o: Y ° z Z ~ Q = 00 W W l/'1 W J cc W 0 W LL W ~~ ~ M ~ ~ ~ I 1 I I I ~. ^ L V ^ 0 ^ V L ^~ L ~~ O _O I N O O N Q ~ O r r r r O r N VJ O O N O O N ti O O N O O N O N ~t 0 N J O N U y=. (~ C Q N L Q L '0 V 0 0 m ui U 7 0 z o o~ ~_ v o ~~ '~ m O Y = Z ° Q = CD W CC W W J Q CC W W u. W ~~ O O O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O >, ~~ ~~ L f+ V ^ N .~ ~+ •~ C ^~ ~ L ~ a N V O O N V' O O N W O N O O N O O O N O O N 0 0 N r O O N O 00 CO ~ N O 00 Cfl ~ U a=. _~ to C Q N c~ L ^L` W /~ V L M0 W U L '0 VJ o~ z o o` V ~_ 2 Nv C 1..V LLm ~~ z ~ Q= m~ W W V1 W J Q W 0 W W ~~ O O O N O O O N Q N i ~ ~ o° N O N ^ N O ~ ~ L _ N _ 0 ~_ ^ ^ ~ C4 O ~ O ~ O ~ O CO ~ ~ ~' 'd' M M N CO Cfl l~C ~ ~ ~ M M O O N U >. c Q a~ ca 2 c a~ m rn m c c~ a a 0 a~ c ai U O o~ zo o~ c C V 2 L~ Q O m Y ° z Z ~ Q = CG W W N W J Q W W W E~ U T ._ m ^ ~ M O ~ O O r O O O W Z ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O O M O ~ O ~ 3 O O M ~- O ti ~- N ti ~ C7 x _Z ~ N c _ U ~ ~L ~ ~ ~ ~~ L ~ L o ~ ~ Q O Z (a ~ o Z ~ ~ U ~ ~ ~ m ~ ~ O a~ Z ~ ~ ~ ~ W _ ~ N 0 L ~ Q ~ (/1 ~' ~~ O ~ > ~ ~ `-~' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 O O Q w ~ Z ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~- ~ O In l(') lf') Q tf') M O '~ lf~ M CO In In ~ _ O O M CO O lf~ O O ~ O ~ 3 ~ M ~ ti ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N lf~ M M ltd ~ O ~ O ~ O In _Z x N ~ ~ ~ ~ M W L r ^ V ` ^^ W NZ I.f. Q ~ a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ o ~ 0 ~ ~ z 0 ~ ~ w ~ . L > ~ ~ ~ cn ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ L o ~ ~ m i O 0 W ~ z n Q ~ U c ca Q X O a~ U C C O Q N Q N N U_ C C U a 0 a~ (~ C Q a~ c~ 2 c m rn ca c ca a a c U 7 0 ~ °~ ~ z o o¢ ~ ~ x v ~ ^ V o ~ ~~ z ,~ O m • 0 w z o w Q= o m~ z ~ O _W ~ J LL Q W W L.L W I- Q ~ Q ' M ~ ~ ~ ~' ~ M M M ~ O r O N L L O Z ~~ L i O ~..1 m r--~ C U m rn ca a~ Q rn c .~ 0 0 m m 3 H O N W O O N O O N O O N O O N 0 O N O N d0 C~ d' N O 0~0 CO d' N O ~ ~ ~' '~ ~ M M M M M U ~_. _~ f0 c Q a~ m 2 c~ a~ L M~ W U ai U L ''0^ VJ 0 z o o c C V S v 2 F- ~m o Y ° z ~ Q V m C W W N W J cc W 0 W W O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O 0 ~~ .~ L a~ L O Z ~ Q :~ C 0 m ~3 c ~ ~ U r N O N N O ~ O L N .~ a c U X N 0 p 0 0 N °~ ~a .Q ca U N C N O m 0 ~ N o c a~ 0 0 ~ _ ~ ~ N ~ U N O U M m O Z 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N V U :_~ _~ (6 C Q i m 2 3 c~ m L M~ W a~ U ~i U i 7 O D Z a x • v o cc ~ 5 ~ m o . ~ Y = Z ~ Q = ~ m W W 1/1 W J Q cc W 0 W W F~ O ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~t O ~ In M O M ~ N O N In r- O ~- O m c .~ O U a ~ ~ L ~ y .N ~ U ~ ~ m ~ f0 (p (B ~ f'- r N O O N W O O N ti O N O O O N O O O O N M O O O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O tf) O ~ O N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ M M N N ~ ~ M r r r r r r r r r r r r r U :~ _~ (0 c Q m` c~ 2 c~ m L m Q~ U ui U L ''~^ vJ H 0 z ~ 0 ~ t v V c CC ~ LL a O ; Y z° z~ ¢_ m W W V1 W J a W W W F- s= O O ti O ~ ~ M N ~ O O M M M M M M M M M M N r r r r r ~- r r r r ~ O M ~ N ~ N Q M Q. W L 1 N /T O O N W O O N O O N O N O O N O O N M O O O O O ~ O ~ ~ M N ~ O O N M M M M M M M M M M N Z ~ U ~_. _~ (4 c Q a~ m U ~-. L J 0 c~ m L m U L '0 V/ o~ z o oa ~~ x v z ~ m o . ~ Z z ~ m W W V1 W J W 0 W C d A O W O L O O r O N O O N W O O N O O N p O O N O O N O O N M O N p O O O O O O O O O O O c'~ N ~ ~ N M ~ ~ p ti ap I I I I 1 I 1 I U :_. _T (0 C N ca 2 U m L 0 J w O m L M~ W U L '0 VJ o~ Zo o¢ V 2 v C LL. m Y = Z ~ Q = m c W tY W t/1 W J Q fY W W L.L. W O O O p O O O O O O O M N r- p r" N ('7 ~ ~ CO 1~ 00 ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O O O ~ ~ O O O O ti ti C~ CO ~ ~ ~ ~ N L ^~ a +, f6 U N L 0 U LL a~ a ~ ~ Q ~ O N r r O N O r O N O O N W O O N O O N O N O N O O N M O O ~~ N ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ^ ~ O O O O 00 00 I` ~ O O ~ ~ ~ ~ r r rn c :_. N N M N N C 7 N L 0 L Y- Q~ U c a~ U N Q C~ L U C N c a~ .~ c m U N L N U N O U O LL 0 Z U _a (6 C Q L 2 U :.. N :_. N w c~ J w O 7 (6 N m N U O o~ z o o~ a ~_ x V 0 oc ~m o . Y °z Z ~ Q = m W W t/1 W J W 0 W LL W N W O O N ti O O N ^~ ••d O O N V ~ ~ O O N L .~ ~ ;V J ~ ^ .~ ' .~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ CNO CO ~ ~ O r N U fa C Q 2 U w N w t~ .-. O ca J O N N L MM~ ^W W U L 0 c~ zo o¢ ~~ _• ~¢ _o oc ~ ~< om Y ° Z ~ Q V m G W W N W J Q W 0 W LL W E O ~ ~ ~ ~ r r r r r r ~ ~ ~ Q i o _o O N X L ~ m rn ca a~ Q a~ c~ C~ r O N /T O O N W N ti O O N O 0 N l1') O O N O O N M 0 ~ O O O O O ~ ~ N r r r r r r U w _A (0 C Q cv 2 U :_. lA ~_. f~ w L 0 J 0 c~ a~ L M~ ^W` W U O o~ z a o= ~~ x v o cc ~ LLm O . ~~ z ~ ¢_ m W W N w J cc W 0 W H v, O O N W O O N ti O O N O N L ~ ~ O W N L i O~ ~ o O N I f L M p ~ O ~ O t~ d' '~ o ~ O ~ O ~ O N M M N N r a ~ O ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ M O M ~ N O N ~ r- O r O r O N U :_. _~ N c Q m ca 2 U w w f0 //f~~ V/ L 0 J O 7 f4 N L M~ W U L 0 z o o~ ~~ x v 0 ~~ ~m o Y = Z ~ Q V m C W W W J Q W w W 00 (~ CO ~ ~ ~„~ N ~ w ~ ~ c~ ~~~ U ~ \° ~ ~ L } ~ U ~ Q ~ U ~ ~' N a i ~ _ ~ > f' m r O r N N C~ V! O O N W O N I O O N ~, O O ' ~~, N ~`, ~. ~ g ~~ ~ ~~ ` O O c v N O N c °~ ~~ ~ o U ~ ' ~ C ca !n ~ p V ~ ~ ~ ~ U c ~ ~ ~ ~ o m o ~ O ~ ~ ~ ' O N m ~ ' i ~ ~ O '~ O L ' _ ~ } i ~ ' O 00 I~ CO ~ d' M N ~ N U >, f6 C Q a~ c~ 2 N U N L 0 m J O (C L M~ W U L ''~^ V/ o~ z o o~ ~` x • V c ~ ~ '~ m O Y = z ~ m W W W J Q W 0 W LL W ~~ L Z .~ .~ ~ ~ c' V ~ t U \° o m O ~ L ~ L L `~ a~ AO i O J 0 Q O ~ ~ M CV ~- p r O O N N O N ti O O N 0 0 N O O N O N M ^~ V O N r U :.r _a ~II c Q m` c~ 2 U :_. :_. f4 O N J 0 c~ m m ui 0 o~ z o o< ~_ x v 0 ~m o Y ° z Z ° Q = CD W W N W J Q W v W LL W 0 ~ ~ Q Q ~ ~t ('7 CV ~- p O O O O O O O O ~ ~ M N ~ O ~ N O o ~ ~ N O ~ /I L Z O L O O N O N W O O N O N C O ' O ~ O N O V O -, N .: i 'i O y N M O ; O '~ O O O O O O O O N In ~ M CV r O ~ N 1 1 U ;., _~ f~ C Q a~ c~ 2 U i~ :_~ O fis J 0 m a~ L M~ W U L ''Q^ V/ o~ Z ~ ~~ x • V_ s 0 GC LL a O m Y Z Z ° Q m a W fY W N W J W w W ^O O }00~ }~~ }r-~ }N~ }MONO }C N ~ ~ flN00~ ca ~ ~ ~ ca ~ ~ ~a ~ ~~'N _ ~ ~ ~~r- ~ = AO~OOM c Q ~ O ~ Q ' O ~ ~~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ C O ~ =I~d7 ~ =M'Ct cn ~MInMO p ' ~Or' ~ O ~ ~O~N ''' ' p ' ~MCOd'N ~ > ~ j 7 N ti ~ a ~ ~ N ~ ~ ~ ~' E p ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ m ~ c c~ ~ ~ ~; ~ c ~ ~ U U ~' ~ U +-' ~ ~ ~ ~ y"' C ~ U ^L` W i ^, W ~ ~ ^' W (~ u ~ ^^ I..L u ~\ ^~ ~ L i1 ~~ ~ L -• ~ + ~ W ~ C ~ -~ W W Qc v ~ N x m W ~ c ~ ca c ~ cn X G1 ~ ~ O 'A N m • '~ p ~ o D O ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ o o~ a o ~ x U • • o~ x ~ u i a ~~ L C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ L O ~ ~ ~ L ~ Q~ ~ L c ~U o ~ ~U - ~ ~ ° ~~ ~U ~ x a C Q ~ O o ii U U W V a } ~ r } ~ ~ ' Q ~ I t C O ~ ~'' l(') p ~ O '~ ~ ~ a E a~ U C U I..L u X N c ~ ~ Tie ~L a i~ .L 0 , a ~ o o U ~ r~ VJ 0 ~ ~ O U vi a~ U .~ N N 0 c ~ ~~ ~ zo U ~ t V 2 ~ ~ V o ~ DC ~ ~ L.L m U ~ ^ '~ Y ° a z w ¢_ V U m ~ j O uJ U ~^ W ~ ~ ~ J o ~ Z W O W W F~ U w _~ C Q L co L m N n c N n C 3 C i 0 .~ L L ^ ~ W L O O O ~ O In O lf) O ~ O ~ O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~t M M N N ~ ~ O O ~ ~ N c~ U N : L : - ~ U LL >, ~ __._ O N c~ U a~ 0 f4 O N r r O N O N O O N O 0 N 1 O O N O 0 N O N O O N M O O O ~ O ~ O ~A O ~ O ~ O ~ O N ~ ~ ~ M M N N ~- ~ O O O ~- 1 U _A tC c Q a~ c~ 2 .~ m c Q U .~ 0 c 0 U W 0 fB N 7 m U L O rn c a~ N N M N C N L 0 L ~; a~ U c m U L Q /~y _V C~ `o >, U C N a~ b c a~ U N L .N f~ U N O U LL 0 Z o~ z o o~ ~~ 2 V_ o ~ ~ LLm o . Y °z Z ~ Q = v m c W W V1 W J W w W V ^ L L W L i V O ~ O ~ O Ln <'`) N N r r O O O N ~ O ~ ~ N w U r ~ r' o O U N c a~ N O ~ ~ ~ O N N c%~ N N C ~ ~ O L O ~' N ~ 0 w uS a~ O rn o ~ N ~ c a~ U a~ ~ ~ o ~ N ~ C~ 0 >, ~ ~ U _ O ~ ~ N a~i ~ .r U _A f~ c Q a~ m 2 .~ a c Q U .~ 0 c 0 U W 0 c~ 7 m N 7 O ~v o~ ~o Zo ~~ o` ~ U ~ o , = 0 ~ N ~ ~ V c ~ ~ • N .~~. ~ m ~ -p O ^ co ~ Q Y Z Z ~ ~ ~ ~ X Q = ~ O ~ OD O U ~ m ~u N ~ ~ O W ~ C W ~ ~ ~ M ~ J O ° c Z o¢c O W O N v O ~ W O In O ~ O In ~ N N r r p O O O O O O O O O O CO ~ ~ M N ~ O ~' N M O ^~ L a L To 0 ~~ ~ ~ N ~'"" ~~ a U 0 U rn c m U ~ o L c~ ~' - m Q f~ r O N O O N W O O N ti O O N O O N O N 0 0 N M O O O O O O O O O O O N O CO ~ ~ M N ~ O ~ N M V ' U _A (6 c Q m c~ 2 U f6 O (0 J 0 ca m L MM~ ^W W U O 0 z 0 v ~~ ~ a o: ~~ Z~ a= m OC W W N W J cc W 0 W w F O O N O O N ti O O N O O O N O L" N ^~ L o O N L M O O O N O 00 CO ~ N O N ~ CO 00 N ~ r I 1 I 1 N O ~ ~ 00 CO ~ N O N 'Cr CO 00 O O N U >, ~a c Q L c~ 2 U :_. :_. N .-. O c~ J O (6 N L m N U L 0 o~ z o o~ ~~ x • v a oc ~ m o Y ° Z ~ Q = oD W W N W J Q W 0 W LL W F V ^~ L ^ ~ O O V ~ O ~ O O ~ O In O ~ N N ~ ~ In O ~ ~ ~ N N M (~ O ~ A N ~ ~ ~ ~~ , 0 ~ m ~ . ~ n ~ Q L ~ 0 L `, . N N ~ N O "O ~ X ~° U ~ f ° ~ o a °?~~ c ~ ~ ~ ca ~~~"n ~ 0 000 ~ ~ Q U ~ ~ U v rn o U ~ o ~ ~ a a~ ~ ~ c a~ CC N O (6 O N O O N W O O N O O N O N O O N O O N O O ~ N O CO M O c'~ CO O N In O ~ N r r 1 1 1 ~ ~ r I I I N U :._. _~ (6 c Q m c~ 2 c~ m L aN~ L.L _~ C0 CC C Q U uS U w N :_~ f6 O f6 J O c~ a~ m ai U O 0 z 0 x • v o ~~ al m o . ac z~ ¢_ m W W t/1 W J Q W W L.L W F~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ d' M N ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ r" ~ ~ ~ r- O 00 ~ O~~ M N ~ O ~ ~ N ~a ~ ~ Q U 0 Q.. O O N O O N O O N '~ O O N N O O N O O O N O O O ^ L ^ ~ O L V L m N C L U CO O O U _~ (C c Q L 2 c m U x W c ca L a~ Y i O } N Z ~a L Q a~ a~ w ai U L ,,~^ v/ o~ Zo o¢ ~_ x v o ~~ ~ m O Y ° z Z ° Q = CD & W W t/1 W J cc W W W //~~ V! r N r O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O~ ~~ M N r- O O 00 f~ (D ~~ M N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ F~ V ^~ L ^ ~ O L O O O O M N ~ O O O O O O O O O O r ~- r r O O ~ O U) ~ M N r- O N O >. 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O O N O O O N O O X N C Y U O O O N O O N O O O O O O O O O O O ~ O O ` ` r r r r U _T f~ C Q f~ N N H U C N C LL N U L '~ V/ o~ z o oa ~~ v .o ~~ ~¢ o: Y Z z ~ Q = CC oc W OC W W J Q W 0 w w S F~ September 14, 2009 Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy for Fiscal Year 2009 The Interim Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012 A briefing to the Chesterfield County Joint Board Meeting John R. Layman Director/Chief Economist Revenue Forecasting Virginia Department of Taxation verve w.. . Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review • Economic Performance • Actual General Fund Collections • Financial Results Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 throw by 2012 • June 2009 Economic Outlook • August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast 1 The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009... • As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June), estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.) - Real consumer spending declined for the first time in the post-war era. Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Real GDP -0.4 -1.6 Consumer Spending -0.7 -1.3 Employment -1.0 -2.3 Personal Income 3.1 1.6 Wages & Salaries 2.4 0.7 • Employment declines exceeded expectations, dampening income growth. - The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year 2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the previous four years. 2 Similar To The Nation, The Virginia Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was Expected In Fiscal Year 2009... • In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the year, led by a pullback in professional and business services and construction. - The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year 2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to housing (construction and financial activities). Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Employment -0.6 -1.4 Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8 Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1 Personal Income 2.1 2.3 Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2 • Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments. 3 Total General Fund Revenue Collections Collapsed In The Second Half Of The Year... $% 4% 0% ~% -8% -12% -16% -20% -24% Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date -3.5% -3.7% -3.5% -9.2% ~ Monthly -Year-to-Date Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0% • Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive months in fiscal year 2009. • For the second half of fiscal year 2009: - Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent; - Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent; - Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent; - Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent; - Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and; - Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent. 4 Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections Finished $298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below Forecast... Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections (millions of dollars) Variance Annual Major Source Forecast Actual Dollars Percent Growth Withholding $ 9,154.0 $ 9,138.1 $ (15.9) (0.2) % 2.3 Nonwithholding 2,348.3 2,310.4 (37.9) (1.6) (19.2) Refunds (1,805.0) (1,967.4) (162.4) 9.0 17.1 Net Individual 9,697.3 9,481.1 (216.2) (2.2) (6.3) Sales 2,960.9 2,903.4 (57.5) (1.9) (5.6) Corporate 685.0 648.0 (37.0) (5.4) (19.8) Wills (Recordation) 298.1 314.3 16.2 5.4 (31.1) Insurance 257.5 255.0 (2.5) (1.0) (35.7) All Other Revenue 715.1 713.2 (1.9) (0.3) (22.1) Total Revenues $ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8) (2.0) % (9.2) ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2 Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8) Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7 Total Transfers $ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0) Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2) • The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was unexpected growth in individual refunds. - Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent m ore refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent above the prior year. • Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues) finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast. • The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast for the three sources. 5 Individual Income Tax Refunds Exceeded The Official Estimate By X162.4 Million... • Individual refunds increased 17.1 percent in fiscal year 2009 compared with the forecast of 7.4 percent growth. Individual Income Tax Refunds by Component (millions of dollars) Forecast Actual variance % variance Base 1,510.0 1,744.3 234.3 15.5% Land Preservation 190.0 131.2 -58.8 -31.0% Low Income 105.0 91.9 -13.1 -12.5% Total 1,805.0 1,967.4 162.4 9.0% • The large increase in base refunds implies significant overpayment of estimated income taxes throughout the year as the economy deteriorated. - For the filing season beginning January 1, 2009, TAX issued 2.6 million refunds, up five percent from the prior year. - The average refund size was up a sharp 12 percent. 6 Sales Tax Collections Were X57.5 Million (1.9%) Below the Official Estimate... • Sales tax collections declined 5.6 percent in fiscal year 2009, the largest annual decline on record. Large Sales Tax Payments by Sector FY08 compared with FY09 (millions of dollars) Sector # of Firms FY08 FY09 Housing Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters Department Stores Grocery Stores Retail Trade Restaurants Wholesale Trade Gasoline Stations Other Total 157 $465.5 $405.4 -12.9% 6 369.7 375.2 1.5% 111 375.5 348.3 -7.2% 19 288.7 298.6 3.4% 94 232.6 233.2 0.3% 71 124.0 120.9 -2.5% 68 63.6 52.0 -18.3% 17 48.2 47.3 -1.8% 300 228.5 203.9 -10.7% 843 $2,196.3 $2,084.9 -5.1% • Housing-related taxable sales (20% of total) led the weakness in growth in fiscal year 2009, declining 12.9 percent from fiscal year 2008. • Taxable sales from department stores and restaurants (23% of total), two sectors dependent on discretionary consumer spending, declined 6.1 percent from fiscal year 2008. • Adjusted for higher food prices, sales at grocery stores, warehouse clubs, and supercenters (31% of total) were below fiscal year 2008 levels. 7 The Governor Ordered The Secretary Of Finance In Mid-June To Conduct A Reforecast Of Revenues... The August 2009 interim revenue forecast is based on the updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the Governor's Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) and the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) . - Global Insight's June 2009 standard forecast for the U.S. and the associated outlook for Virginia were presented to the GABE. - The majority of the Board considered the standard forecast for Virginia too high, with two members recommending a lower growth alternative and six supporting the standard forecast with downward revisions. - Based on GABE members' comments, the June standard forecast for Virginia employment and wages & salaries was reduced halfway to the "False Dawn" pessimistic alternative forecast. - The June GABE and pessimistic alternative forecasts were presented to the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) on August 5, 2009. 8 Global Insight's June U.S. Standard Forecast Is an Update to the November Forecast... • The June standard forecast update includes two additional quarters of economic data. - Real GDP reports for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 were more severe than the November standard or November alternative low-growth forecasts. Real GDP History and Forecast Percent Annualized Percent Change s.o 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 4.8 4.8 3.7 3.4 2.8 291 5 3.1 1.5 11.4 .8 0.9 .7.0 0.1.4 0.0 -0.2 _O-a.S -0. 1.1 -1.4 -2• -2.2 -2.2 -2. -3. -4.0 -s.7 ~'3 2009 Q2 Advance Est = -1.0% 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2 ^ Official (Nov'OS) ~ June Standard ^ June Pessimistic (False Dawn) ^ June Optimistic (Green Shoots Sprout) • The June standard forecast is rated at a 60% probability by Global Insight - signaling a strong belief in the standard forecast. - The two alternative forecasts - "False Dawn" and "Green Shoots Sprout" -are both weighted at a 20% probability. 9 In the June Standard Forecast, the U- Shaped Growth Path for Virginia Has Become Deeper... • Employment and income growth are not expected to reach a low point until fiscal year 2010, compared with fiscal year 2009 in the official forecast. Key Virginia Economic Indicators Official and June GABE Forecast Annual Percent Change Fiscal Year 08 09 10 11 12 Employment Official (Nov '08) 0.9 (0.6) (0.2) 0.8 1.5 June GABE 0.6 (1.4) (1.8) 0.5 1.5 Personal Income Official (Nov '08) 4.4 2.1 2.3 3.4 4.2 June GABE 4.5 2.3 1.2 2.8 3.9 Wages & Salaries Official (Nov '08) 4.3 2.6 3.2 3.2 4.0 June GABE 4.4 2.2 1.3 2.8 4.1 Average Wage Official (Nov '08) 3.4 3.2 3.4 2.3 2.5 June GABE 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.6 10 The August Interim Revenue Forecast Incorporates Pessimism From The GACRE Meeting... • Based on GACRE comments: - The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax revenue was adopted. - Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect weak taxable profits. - Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of the housing market has occurred in Virginia. • The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook. - Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the pessimistic alternative scenario. 11 In the August Interim Revenue Forecast, Total General Fund Revenues Have Been Reduced by $1.2 Billion... August Interim Revenue Forecast (millions of dollars) Asa % Fiscal Year 2010 of Total FY09 Official June Annual Major Source Revenues Variance Forecast Forecast Change Growth Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9) $ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1 Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9) 2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6) Refunds (11.8) (162.4) (1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2) Net Individual 66.2 (216.2) 10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0) Sales 20.2 (57.5) 3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1) Corporate 4.8 (37.0) 724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2 Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2 298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6) Insurance 1.9 (2.5) 283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2 All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9) 755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7) Total (Base) 100.0 % $ (298.8) $ 15,126.2 $ 13,943.6 $ (1,182.6) (2.6) °/ Tax Policy Actions Tax Amnesty 38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0 Sales Tax Remittance 97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0 LTotal Revenues ~ $ 15,262.0_ $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/~ • Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent excluding tax policy actions). 12 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond Levels Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 % Growth Northern Virginia $401,018 $355,137 -11% -- Hampton Roads 273,718 248,704 -9% Richmond 275,590 235,934 -14% Northern Virginia $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 99g1 99g3 OOg1 OOg3 01g1 01g3 02g1 0283 03g1 03g3 04g1 04g3 05g1 0583 O6g1 06g3 07g1 07g3 08g1 08g3 09g1 tNorthern Virginia ~-Hampton Roads -Richmond 39% 22% 11 % ~% share of total home sales in Virginia) 13 U.S. and Virginia Employment Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009 (Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted) FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Vir inia Gain/Loss 90 109, 817 90 2, 905 91 108,283 -1,534 91 2,828 -77 92 108,640 357 92 2,840 12 93 110, 663 2, 023 93 2, 914 74 94 114,136 3,473 94 3,005 91 95 117,186 3,050 95 3,075 70 96 119,647 2,461 96 3,129 55 97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96 98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92 99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86 00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115 01 132, 047 208 01 3, 527 9 02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30 03 129,839 -534 03 3,487 -10 04 131,442 1,603 04 3,579 92 05 133,624 2,182 05 3,658 79 06 135, 956 2, 332 06 3, 733 75 07 137, 645 1, 689 07 3, 763 30 08 137,356 -289 08 3,761 -2 09 131,735 -5,621 09 3,655 -106 Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 14 September 14, 2009 Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy for Fiscal Year 2009 The Interim Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012 A briefing to the Chesterfield County Joint Board Meeting John R. Layman Director/Chief Economist Revenue Forecasting Virginia Department of Taxation verv~ew... Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review • Economic Performance • Actual General Fund Collections • Financial Results Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012 • June 2009 Economic Outlook • August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast 1 The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009... • As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June), estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.) - Real consumer spending declined for the first time in the post-war era. Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Real GDP -0.4 -1.6 Consumer Spending -0.7 -1.3 Employment -1.0 -2.3 Personal Income 3.1 1.6 Wages & Salaries 2.4 0.7 • Employment declines exceeded expectations, dampening income growth. - The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year 2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the previous four years. 2 Similar To The Nation, The Virginia Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was Expected In Fiscal Year 2009... • In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the year, led by a pullback in professional and business services and construction. - The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year 2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to housing (construction and financial activities). Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Employment -0.6 -1.4 Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8 Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1 Personal Income 2.1 2.3 Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2 • Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments. 3 Total General Fund Revenue Collections Collapsed In The Second Half Of The Year... a°~ 4% 0% ~% -8% -12% -16% -20% -24% Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date -3.5% -3.7% -3.5% -7 -9.2% ~ Monthly fYear-to-Date Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0% • Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive months in fiscal year 2009. • For the second half of fiscal year 2009: - Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent; - Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent; - Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent; - Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent; - Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and; - Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent. 4 Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections Finished X298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below Forecast... Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections (millions of dollars) Variance Annual Major Source Forecast Actual Dollars Percent Growth Withholding $ 9,154.0 $ 9,138.1 $ (15.9) (0.2) % 2.3 Nonwithholding 2,348.3 2,310.4 (37.9) (1.6) (19.2) Refunds (1,805.0) (1,967.4) (162.4) 9.0 17.1 Net Individual 9,697.3 9,481.1 (216.2) (2.2) (6.3) Sales 2,960.9 2,903.4 (57.5) (1.9) (5.6) Corporate 685.0 648.0 (37.0) (5.4) (19.8) Wills (Recordation) 298.1 314.3 16.2 5.4 (31.1) Insurance 257.5 255.0 (2.5) (1.0) (35.7) All Other Revenue 715.1 713.2 (1.9) (0.3) (22.1) Total Revenues $ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8) (2.0) % (9.2) ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2 Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8) Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7 Total Transfers $ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0) Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2) • The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was unexpected growth in individual refunds. - Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent more refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent above the prior year. • Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues) finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast. • The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast for the three sources. 5 The August Interim Revenue Forecast Incorporates Pessimism From The GACRE Meeting... • Based on GACRE comments: - The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax revenue was adopted. - Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect weak taxable profits. - Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of the housing market has occurred in Virginia. • The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook. - Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the pessimistic alternative scenario. 11 In the August Interim Revenue Forecast, Total General Fund Revenues Have Been Reduced by $1.2 Billion... August Interim Revenue Forecast (millions of dollars) Asa % Fiscal Year 2010 of Total FY09 Official June Annual Major Source Revenues Variance Forecast Forecast Chanae Growth Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9) $ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1 Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9) 2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6) Refunds (11.8) (162.4) (1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2) Net Individual 66.2 (216.2) 10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0) Sales 20.2 (57.5) 3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1) Corporate 4.8 (37.0) 724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2 Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2 298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6) Insurance 1.9 (2.5) 283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2 All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9) 755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7) Total (Base) 100.0 % $ (298.8) $ 15,126.2 $ 13,943.6 $ (1,182.6) (2.6) °/ Tax Policy Actions Tax Amnesty 38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0 Sales Tax Remittance 97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0 Total Revenues ~ $ 15,262.0 $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/ Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent excluding tax policy actions). 12 $550, $500,1 $450,1 $400,( $350,( $300, 000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond Levels Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 % Growth 'm Virginia $401,018 $355,137 -11% - - -- ton Roads 273,718 248,704 -9% fond 275,590 235,934 -14% Northern Virginia Hampton Roads -- 1 _ - - $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 99g1 9983 OOg1 OOg3 01g1 01g3 02g1 02g3 03g1 03g3 04g1 0483 0581 05g3 06g1 06g3 07g1 07g3 08g1 0883 09g1 tNorthern Virginia Hampton Roads ~-Richmond 39% 22% 11 % (% share of total home sales in Virginia) 13 U.S. and Virginia Employment Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009 (Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted) FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Vir inia Gain/Loss 90 109, 817 90 2, 905 91 108, 283 -1, 534 91 2, 828 -77 92 108, 640 357 92 2, 840 12 93 110,663 2,023 93 2,914 74 94 114,136 3,473 94 3, 005 91 95 117,186 3, 050 95 3, 075 70 96 119, 647 2, 461 96 3,129 55 97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96 98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92 99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86 00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115 01 132,047 208 01 3,527 9 02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30 03 129, 839 -534 03 3,487 -10 04 131, 442 1, 603 04 3, 579 92 05 133, 624 2,182 05 3, 658 79 06 135, 956 2, 332 06 3, 733 75 07 137,645 1,689 07 3, 763 30 08 137, 356 -289 08 3, 761 -2 09 131, 735 -5, 621 09 3, 655 -106 Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 14 ~+ Q N U v .~ 0 0 v w Z i _V LL O Y Z Q W W V1 W J W 0 W L.L W 0 a x v W 0 J Q m z 0 x V O O V .~ O C O V W ^O •~ Z r U N Cfl I~ M O O r N M ~ N N N N M M M M N N O N cn C N X ~ ~ .~ C "~ m O N ~ C N ~ m ~ ~' O N N f0 ~+ i O X .~ Q N ~ O 'O ~ O ~ ~ N i ~ Z O _w O O ~C W O~ Z O CCQ LL O ~, O •~ O C ` ~ ~ ~ ~ ca a~ ~° ~ o c ~ U a c c~ a, 2 0 p o d~ c c rn rn ~,~ ~ Y (~6 to f0 ~ 0 0 i J ~ Z U U Q Q W ~~ L O J ~ CO 1~ OO O r N M M M M M~ ~' M ~ M tt ~ Cfl f~ 00 O O r N M N O N • ~ N C fn N ~ O ~ ~ Q O O O fa O~ O N N N X~ X N _ O C O (a ~ ~ : ~ ~ ^` ~ ~ ~ O ~ Q N ~ ~ ~ N O O O= O N O C O Q (4 OW O O O ~ ~ O O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c°u fB X O ~ O L L O O X O O N ~ 0 0~ ,~ X =Of-WU~UUF- ~~~WLL~~ •v~UH~W = 0O _C L ~ M ~ lf~ CO ti M O r N M~ In (O f~ 0p O O ~ N M~ (Tj ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ •-- ~ N N N N N O O • O N : ~-• f0 ~ ~ ~ O •_ • U U O O C~~ U U L O C~ "~ ~ i ~ (~ ~ ~ a ~- U O ~ ~ H C +~ ~, C f6 O N O O x L. ~ .r Cn N (B ~. C : C `~ ~ "C3 ~ " ~ C O ~ O C N~ 7 ~ ~ (0 N >, V o ~~ a ~ N m ~ ~~ a m x g ~ m~ cc m o X ~ ~ m ?, O a~i .Q- ~ c H a~ ~ ~ a~ ~ m W Z •O ~ O ~ Z o v°i aNi ca ~ :Q ~ a~ ~ •~ .~ .~ in m •o c ~ ° ~ ~ ~ o f ° rn o° rn~ c ... ~. c ~° ~.~ Z o e m O ~~ c~ 2 °, N c O o o ~ cv ~ O cn u~ p ~ o ~ ° '' ~ ~ ~ E ~ ~ c o :N ~ m ~ ~ ~ o~c U .-.. N u ~ ~ ~ Q ~ ~ ° ~ N ~ ~ o a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ vWi ~ (~ N ~ C C O ~ ~ O O C C •L N C •~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ DC ~ o O N N a~ ca .~ a`~i •~ d a°i a°i N N cv ~ -a ~ ~ 'Q ~ o > c¢c F-~ ~ ~~~Cn(A~~ ~~~~~ m ~ =UPI=~~U c ~ 0 O > ~ _ ~ = Rt w C ~ ~ _ F-- L a ^~ O c~ O O O ~ ~ M O ~ ~ N N o0 U' ~ ~ O ~ 00 N ~ ~ Cfl ~ O ~ O ' ' N ~' ~ M O ~ ~ M ~ N ~ ~ CU N O S N O ~ O d: H O ~ U' Cfl O p7 M Cp 00 O CO N Cfl ~ M CO ' M ~ M M N M ' ' - ~ Op o 0 ~ M ... 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O X C7 fn ~ i ~ ~ O O N ~ (n ~ W O N O ~ W N ~ ~ ~ p (~ W ~ N ~ ~ Z ~ W ~ C~ C~ ~ w U Z J U :., _~ (~ C Q i N m 2 .~ c U 0 c 0 U W 0 c~ OD ui L 0 0 ~ z a o¢ ~_ x v o ~~ ~m Y ° Z z ~ m~ W W N W J Q W W L.L W ~~ V L ~ ~ 0 0 L 00 f~ CO ~ 'Ct M N r- O ~ N M ~ to CO 1~ N ~ O r a~ c~ L C ^~ W C 7 n 5 3 u U L 00 f~ C4 ~ ~f' M N ~ O ~ N M ~ ~ CO I~ 1 I I 1 1 I 1 O O N O O N O O N 1 O O N O O O N O O N O O N M O O N N O O N r O O N U _T f0 C Q L 2 .~ a C Q U O c 0 U W ~•- O fa N m ui U L ''~^ v/ D Z o O °~ s • v o ~~ '~ m o . Y = Z m W oc W W J Q W 0 W LL W F O N ~ OD Cfl ~ N O CV ~ CO 00 ~- r- O N O C (a o 0 } O ~ ~ N .~ ~ 0 a~ ~ M ~ ~ m ~I r- °' ~ 0 0 c U ~ oo c~ ~I o 0 0 ~ LC) r ~ ~~ O O > N ~ C ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ X r O N O O N W O O N O O N O O O N to O O N O O N M O O O 00 CO ~ N O N ~ CO 00 O N N r 1 1 I I ~ ~ I U >, c Q a~ fQ 2 7 N 7 m 7 C m U ai U L 0 o~ z o o= V x • V c ~ ~ ~ c O m Y ° Z ~ Q = v m W W V1 W J W 0 W LL W 2 ~~ L .~ W O V O L CO ~ ~ M N r O ~ N M ~ O >, ~ ~ O N ~ p~ ~ O O ~ C U ~I c° o ~ ' 0 M ~ O ~~ ~ O `m ~ > ~ O ~ ... ~ ~ ~ O ~ Q U X ~ W c o ~ ~ Q~ ~~ ~a a ~ ~ °w ~ U ~" ~ O ~ L U a c (6 m Q1 O (~ r O N O O O N O O N C .~ O ~ N ~ a~ m O ~ O x O ~ N ~ rn m 0 U O ~ N ° ^L` W Q (6 v d' o° O N N ~ a~i U M ~ O ~ O Z Cfl ~ ~ M N r O ~ N M ~ N I 1 1 U a c Q ^L` W c~ .~ c Q U O c 0 U W O 7 f6 7 m ai U 7 O Q W H Z o o= t V 2 V c ~ ~ LL m O . 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(~ r 1 7 ~ ~ C (~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ L ( Q ~ ^ '' vJ 1 1 Q I L J .~ O .~i cn U_ m Q ~ C O ~ /~ O V• ~ r N O N O O N O O N O O N O N O N M O O ~ N O 00 CO ~t N O 00 CO ~ N N N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U c Q m` _2 .~ _~ C Q U .~ 0 c 0 U w O ca N M~ W ui U O N o~ z o o` ~_ V ~ ~ ~ ~ m O Y ° Z ~ Q v m ac W W N W CC J cc W W W ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ M O O .~ 1 ^ O __ O O ^~ ~ ~ _ ~ T C ~ ~ ~ , v i i i i i rn~ rn~ ' rn T ~ 1 ~ ~ ' 1 ~ 1 I ~ ~ I I ~~ ~~ m; ~~ ~~ m~ ~~ o _; ~~ c ~. ~~ 'x w i ~ , C~ Q ~ N' ~i m' L ~ ' Q i i i i r O N O O N O N O O O N lf) O O N O N M O O ^~ ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ N ~C CO C~ ~ ~ ~ ~t M U _T (~ C N f6 0 a~ 0 0 is U O f4 C O (~6 Z ai 0 o~ z o o~ ~~ x • V_ ~ OC ~ L.L m O Y = Z Q = m W W V1 W J W W LL. W ~~ ~t M N ~ O O M ti O ~ ~t M N 1 ~ ~ O O N ^~ ~ O O O O N W O O N ti O N O O N O O N ~' O N G O 3 ~ M N ~- O O M ~ O ~ ~ M N N r' ~ r' ~ r- O O O O O O O O ~ r' ~ ~- r- O O O O O O O 0 0 r~ O N U c Q L 2 3 m m m c m U ui U L ''Q^ VJ Q W H Zo O ~ ~~ x • V oc . o ~ m` O . Y ° Z ~ Q CO W W N W J Q C W 0 W LL W O 00 CO ~ N O O CO ~ N N ~- r- ~ r- r O O O O O ^ L a .~ 1 ^ N ~ '=' .~ a O O ^ r O N /T O O N O O N 0 N O O O N O O N O O N M O O O 00 CO '~ N O 00 CO ~ N N N r- ~ r r- r O O O O U :_.. >, c Q a~ c~ c~ a~ L M~ W U ui U L '~ VJ o~ z o o` ~_ x V_ o ~ ~ LL m O Y ° Z ~ v m s W W t/1 W CC J cc W 0 W LL W F O 00 CO ~ N (V r r r r ^~ O ^ ~ 1 y m .~ ~ 0 O 00 CO ~ N ~- O O O O O I I ~ ~ ~ ~ o I 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I I rn~ rn; rn~ r ~ L ~~ 7 ~ o~ L ~ ~ ~ y.+ ~ ~ ~ T T V/ 1 ~~ ~ 1 1 1 ''~^i ~ VJ ~ rn; c. ~~ ~~ o ~~ ~~ c~ c. Q' m~ rn; ~ i 1 i ~ ~ ~ Q ~ i i O 00 Cfl ~ N ^ ~ L N r ~- ~- ~ O N O O N W O N O O N O O N Y J O N O N M O O 00 CO ~ N N ~ O O O O U :_. c Q L 2 c~ L M~ W A~ W U ai U L '~ VJ Z x • v ~~ '~- m o . ~~ z~ ¢_ m W W N W J cc W 0 W W .~ ^ L O N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N N M ('7 ~t O N ~ C~ o r a~ c~ c c ca a~ ca of ~ Ir N ~ ~ ' ~ r- N N c'~ M ~ I I 1 1 1 I 1 N N 1 O O N O O N O O N O N M N rn U _~ c Q L 2 .~ _~ C Q U O c 0 U W w O 7 f0 L m ui U L '0 VJ c~ z o o` ~_ x v o ~~ '~ m o . Y °z Z ° Q = m W W t/1 W J Q W 0 W LL W H L V L ^ L 0 Z ~~ O~ O~ O O~ O~ O~ O lf) M N N ~ ~~ p~ ~~ N N M M~~ 0 N ~ ~ ~ a~ m 0 L O~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O In M N N ~ ~ ' ~ ~ N N M c~ ~~ O N M O N O N O O N O N O N M O N U _~ f~ C m 2 .N m c Q U .~ 0 c 0 U W 0 ca m m ai U L '~ VJ c~ 0 z o` ~_ x • v o ~~ ~ a o Y ° z Z ~ ¢_ m W W t/1 W J Q W W W ~~ O O O O O O O O M M (~ M OM N N N O O ^ L .~ i ~~ ^ L r O N O O O N W O N ti 0 0 N O N 0 0 N O O N M O O 000 COO ~ N O 000 ~ ~ N M M M M M N N N U _T N c Q a~ ca c~ m c m U ai L 'Q VJ o~ ~o o` ~_ x V_ c ~ ~ O ; ]C ° Z Q = m W W V1 W J W 0 W W E~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O N N M M ~ ~ ~ ~ ~p CO ti ~ i i i i i i i i i i 0 L ^~ L ~~ c o ~ ~ ~ N b4 i m rn L c .~ 0 c 0 m m 3 ~. C O m C L U r~ O N O O N W O O N ti O O N O O N In O O N O N M O O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O N N N M M ~ ~ ~ In (p ~p ti U _~ (6 c Q L 2 3 ca m C N U ui U L ''0^ v/ o~ 0 z o` ~_ x ~~ 0 ~~ LL • Y = Z ~ Q = m W W N W J cc W W w 2 E~ ^ ~ 0 L ^~ L •/~ ~ O ~ O ~ ~ O O ~ r r r r O a~ ~rn O O r N O N ~ ~ O O O r r r r O O O O N O O O N O O N O O N O O O N O N O O N k M O O N U _A (0 C Q a~ c~ 2 0 c L a~ 0 C7 0 L ca 0 m ui U L ''~^ VJ 0 W H O ~~ x • v oc ~~ O ~c z ~ ¢_ m W CC W N W J Q W W LL W O O ~ o ~ ~ ~~ r O N VJ O O N .~ L ~+ V ^ N .~ ~+ y~ T ~ ^~ ~ ~ U ~/ N ~ a N O W O O N 0 0 N O O O N O N 0 0 N M r O T O ti ~ ti ti ~ O N O G O ~ U ~, (Q C Q c~ 2 0 c ^L` W r~ V 0 L M0 W U L '~ VJ o~ 0 z o= ~_ x • v o ~~ ~` om ~~ z~ Q= m~ W W N W J cc W 0 W LL W F~ Cfl CO ~ to ~ ~ M O O ~ N Q ~ L \° X V ~ L ~ O ^ O N O O N O O O N O N 0 0 N O N O O N M O O CO ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ M O N U :_. >, m c Q L f~ C N f0 C (6 a 0 w m .r c ai U L ''Q^ v/ o~ z o o= V 2 v C LL t O m Y °z Z ~ Q = v m c W cc W V1 W J cc W W LL W U ~-. ^~ m ^ ~; M O ~ O O ~ O O O W Z ~ ~ 7 ~ CO ~ CO ~ o0 ~ ~ O O O I~ M ~ O N tf) f~ O ~ C7 x _Z ~ ~ c U Q _ ~~ L ~ '> N '~ ; ~ L ~ 11,, i.~ Z ~ Z ~ ~ ~ ~ O z ~ ~f ~ ~ ~ m ~ ~ ~ N z _ ~ ~ O ~ W Q~ ~ 'Q ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ _ ~ •V ~ O O O ~ m ~-.' O W ~ z ~ ~ O O O d' ~ '~ O lf') tf') l(') Q In O Cfl ~ lf~ M CO L(') lf') ~ _ O 07 M t0 O ~ O O ~ O ~ ~ '7 M ~ ti ~ ~ ~ ~ ~fi N ~ M M ~ In O l(7 O In O lf~ W Z_ X ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ m r V _Z ~"' U ~ Z ~ ~ C~ G ~ U a c ~ a ~ L O z ~ ~ ~+ Q w ^~` W •L _> ~ _O ~ c~ n ~ ~ N ~ (n ~ O ,~, O ~ m L O ~ X W z O ~ U c~ L C C Q X O a~ U C C O Q N Q N U_ C C a~ L N a 0 a~ W LL W C Q L c~ 2 c m a~ rn c~ c ca a a 7 N i 0 ~ °~ ~ zo ~, o L = ^` V ~` VI • O ~ ~ Z I.L m ~ Y ° W z X ~ m Z ~ O u.i v~ ~ J LL Q W ~ 0 W ~ O ~ 0 0 CO ~ N 0 0 ~ ~' N O ~ ~ ~' ~ ~ M M M M M ~ O N a L L O Z ~~ O ~..i m ~_ C U a~ rn m L c .~ 0 t c 0 a~ m 3 1 O O N W O O N O O N O O N O O N N M O O N U _T N c Q `m c~ 2 c~ a~ m c a~ U ai U L ''0^ V/ o~ z o o~ V 2 v S O m Y ° z Z ~ Q = M V W OC W W N W J cc W W LL W ~~ O ~~ .~ L ~ CO CO Ln In ~ L L O -~ Z ~ Q C 0 m E!? N ~~ 7 U r N O O N W O O N O L O L N .~ rn c U X N N ~ p O o N °' ~a w Q c~ U N C 0 ~ O N o ^_ L N O O d' ~ ~ ~_' N °- ca U N O U M ~ O Z ~ CEO CEO N ~ ~ N U ::. >, f4 C Q N ca 2 c~ a~ m c a~ U ~i U L ,0 V/ Q W H Z o o= V S V_ c ~ ~ L.L m O . Y = Z Q = m W W t/'f W J W W W O ~ O ~ O ~ O In O ~ O In O f~ CO CU ~ ~ ~ ~ M M N N r- ~ ~ ~ ~- ~ r r r r r r r ~ ~ O ^~ U d ^~ a~ c ~ ~ m ~ ~ U N ~ ~ m ~ ~ _ ~ c c~ ~ ~ ~ r O N VJ O O N W O O N O O N O O O N N O N O O N M O O ~ O In O ~ O ~ O ~ O N O N I` CO (O ~ ~ ~ '~t M M N N r- ~ M ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U _~ f~ C Q `m c~ 2 m m L M~ W U ai U L ,,~^ vJ 0 z O x v a ~~ '-'- m O . Y °z Z ~ Q CD oc W a W N W J W 0 W W ~~ O 00 f~ CO ~ ~ M N ~ O O M M M M M M M M M M N r r r r r r r r r r ~ O M ~ N ~ N Q r M r Q. W L L r N V/ O O N W O O N ti O O N O N 0 N O N M O O O 00 f~ CO ~ ~ M N ~ O O N O M M M M M M M M M M N Z ~ N U _A c Q a~ ca 2 N U N .-. L 0 J 0 c~ L M~ W U O o~ Zo o` ~~ x v a cc ~m o . Y ° z Z ~ Q = m W W t/'1 W cc J W w W F` W O L a L O Z O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N M ~ ~ Cfl I 00 c~ N ~ p ~ ~ Q ~ ^ W ' _~ Q c 0 a~ 0 a c c~ 0 H uS m rn U _~ L C ~ ~ ~ (~ CO M M ~ N N ~ M tt~ i ~ c~ ~ i i i ~ ~ U a~ f6 ~ ~ O ~ ~ T i ~ a ~ ~ ~ a c~ ~ V ` ~ O r O N O O N O O N ti O O N p O N O O N O O N M O N O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O M N ~ ~ N M ~ ~ C~ I~ 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U _~ (0 C Q N c~ 2 U ~_. L 0 Q J O ca m L ~./~ W U O o~ z o o< v _ ~ V ac CC ~ ~- m o . ]C ° z Z ~ ¢_ m W W N W cc J Q W 0 W LL W x F~ ^ ^ ~ ^ V ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O O O ~ ~ O O O O ti ~ O O ~ ~ ~ ~ N .r (B U N L U LL '3,??~== ~ o ~ ~ Q ~ ~+ C U O N r r O N O r O N O O N O O O N O O N O O N O N O O N O O ~ O In O In O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O N O O O O O 00 ~ ti O O ~ ~ ~ ~ c N N N M N N C 7 N t 0 uS m rn c c~ U c a~ L Q _~ C~ L 0 U C N C a~ }. b c a~ U L N (6 U U O LL N Z U _~ f0 C Q a~ m 2 U :_~ f4 ++ c~ J O 7 f0 L 7 m U O c~ z o o~ ~_ x V i 0 GC ~ ~m o . Y °z Z ~ Q v m z W W l/1 W J Q W 0 w W 2 f~ CO ~ '~' M N ~ O O CO CO CO CO CO CO C~ C4 ~ O O ^~ V L 0 L J .~ Q m L ~ L T .. 0 ~ '. ~ ~ w J r 1 1 I 1 c 0 Q 0 0 ~+ C Q1 U N a ~- O N O O N W O O N O O N O O N O N O O N M O '~ _ N ^ U c Q L c~ 2 U N :~ f~ O m J w O 7 f6 L M~ W U L 0 o~ z o o= ~~ x • V c ~ ~ ~m o . Y ° z Z °g Q = m W W {./1 W J cc W 0 W LL W O 00 C~ ~ N O ~ O O O O O 00 (~ r r r r r r O O O Q L o O •+ O O N X L ~ a~ a~ Q a m c~ C~ r N O O N O O O N O N O 0 N O O N O O N M 0 O ~ O O O O O ~ ~ N Q r r r r r r U _T N c Q a~ c~ 2 U N (0 O f4 J 0 ca m m ai U O c~ z o o~ ~_ v o ~~ ~ m Y ° Z ~ Q = CD ov-c W CC W N W CC J W 0 W W E~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ ~ ~ M M N N ~ ~ O L W L 0 L ~o ~~ Q N ~ M M ~ N C O O O O f~ L U O O ~ ~ ~ Q ~ ~ ~ W c~ L U 0 L m L O N O O O N O O O N ti O O N O O O N °o N d' O O N M O O O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O N ~ ~' ~ M M N N r- ~ U ~_. _~ (6 c Q a~ ca 2 U :_. f4 `o c~ J 0 ca 00 ui U L 0 o~ z o o~ a V Z ~`//~ O IW~ J LLm Y ° z ~ m ¢ W W V1 W J cc W 0 W F~ 00 I~ Cfl ~ ~' M N r O O Q. m ~~o ~ ~ ~ ~ ca ~~~ ~ N U ~ N \° ~ O ~L 0 Q >' ~ U rn ~ N o~ °o U ~ a~'i N ~ ~ ~ ' d ~ m ~ ' r i i I 1 / 1 // l ~, ~~, '~ ... .~ ~~ o ~ a~ ~ ~ ~. ~ ~ ca ~ ~~ c ~~ ~ m a~ ° Q- ~ c U ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U ~ : ~ U ~ ~ ~ . c ~ ~ c~a c m ~ ~ L m m ~' i L ~ ~ ~ ~, ~ L f~ ~ ~ i ~- O N VJ O N O O N 1 O O N O O O N tf') O N O O N M O O 00 f~ CO ~ ~ M N ~ N W U >, ~a c Q m c~ 2 U ~.. `o m J O 7 m L ''0^ V/ o~ zo o= ~_ x v o ~~ ~ m o . Y ° z Z ~ Q = CO W W t/1 W J cc W 0 W L.L W O O O O O O O ~ CO ~ d' M N ~ O ~ O .~ L Z ^~ ^~ U o a~ O ~ } O a °' O } a~ ~ o 0 0 i _ ~ ~ CO o M 0 00 0 ~ 0 i N ~d°' U m c ~ Q ~ ~ Q , 1 ~ ~~ d a d d i i m~ rn~ c~ ' ~ ^L` W ~ Q 1 1 L ~ ~~ 1 1 ~ ~ ~ o• a~ I I 1 I I i i i i i i i i O N V! O N O O N ti O O N O O N O O N O O N M O O O O O O O O O O N CO ~ ~ M N ~ O r I J U y-. _T N C Q a~ c~ 2 U :_. L J 0 m U O o~ z s o= V V S LL e m. Y ° Z ~ Q = m s W W N W J Q W 0 W W O O O O O O ~ ~ M N ~ O O O ~ N 1 ' O O N o ~ N O ~ O O N W O O N .~ L Z J O O N ~ c 0 U O ~ O ~ N o a w a~ ~ o O ,~ O ~ N a~ .~ .~ N ~L O `~ N ~ C Q N O Z O '~ O O O O O O O O N ~ ~ M N ~ O ~ N 1 U :_. _T f6 C Q a~ c~ 2 U :~ N ca O J w 0 c~ a~ L M~ W U L 0 VJ o~ z a o~ ~~ x • v o rr ~ ~m O . Y °z Z ~ Q = m C W W V1 W J Q W W W Ef ^O 0 0 0 ~00~ ~~~ }~CONO ~O~ ~N~ ~CONOO~A .. ~' ~ ~~. ~ ~ ~'~N (6 ~ ~'~~ ~ AO~OOM Q ~Or' Q ~O~ Q 3Or-NN ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c O ~ O c O ~ ~ ~ Cf~d~ ~ =Md' ~ =Mll~MO O 3Cfl~ O • 7ON O 7MCO~N •j ~ > ~ 7 '~ ~ N ti ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~I O O ~ O N ~ O ~ N ~ ~ co ~ cB C ca L U ~ U ' ~ U y..• ~ ~ ~-- ~ ~ y--i C ~ U L ~ i ~ U L ~ ^ LL ^ I..L ^ u ~\ (n ~ ^` L ~\ ~\ W ~~ = A` W ^` W W ~ ~ '1 1 W W A W N ~ ~ ~ w * C ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ x ~ ~ O O v ~ ~ _ ~ ~ ~ +~+ i ~ ~ = m ca v a o ~ x • ~, ~ x v • o ~ ~ ~ U a L ~x~o x d ~ Q o ii UU w v a 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ i C7 ~ ~ ~ Q c 0 ~ ~' lf') O ~ O '~ ~ N O N f~ U C ^U LL ^^x, ~}W V ~ U = a V ±-• •L ~ a ° _~ ~ 0 ~ U O E ~ ~ ~ U ~ O U Q N m U .~ N a Q Q Q x ~ D j Z o U ~ a .~ X = ~ V ~ ~ ~ ~ LL m v O .` ~ _ a. z w ¢_ M V ^ W OC I..L. ~ cc O W U `^ W N ~ N J ~ ~ Z u.l W LL W n ~, 0 C 6 3 3 3 i s s i i I I I i i O .~ L a. L ~~ ^~ W L O L O O to O In O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ ~t `Ct M M N N ~ ~ O O ~ `; N ._ ~. ` .. ca U ~ _ O LL U LL 0 -~ o C m U 0 (B N m` 0 O N r r N O O N O N O N O N O 0 N O O N O O N M O O O ~ O N O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O N ~ ~ ~ M M N N ~- ~ O O O r- 1 rn c a~ N M N C 7 ~_C C 0 a~ m U c a~ U N Q. C1 0 >, U C N a~ .r ~a b c a~ U N t ca U N O w U O LL N 0 z U _~ f0 c Q m c~ .~ m c Q U .~ 0 c 0 U W 0 N m N U L ''0^ V/ o~ z o o= ~~ 2 ' V o ~ ~ ~Q o: Y °z Z f Q OD W W N W J cc W w W ~^ V ^~ L L W L L O ~ O ~ O M N N ~ ~ ~ O O O N ca - U LL ~o ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ rn ca U L 0 a~ O (Q m o ~ o ~n o M N N ~ ~ ~ m O ~ N •c w U a r a~ ~ o O U c a~ N O ~ r ~ O cv N c~ N N C ~ ~ O ~ ~-. N o uS m O °' O c=a o N ~ c a~ L a~ ti ~ O `r N ~ C~ `o a~ ~ _U Q ~ N ~ ~ U w _~ N C Q a~ c~ 2 .N a m c Q U 0 c 0 U W O 7 c~ m O ~~ o .~ o o~ zo o U ~ ° _ O o o ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~ .~~ ~a ~- ~ ~ o ° f4 a~ X " Y 0 z d- O ~ n ~ O W w¢r~ wA c O N U ~ ~ ~ '.'-' c~c O U 11J V1 ~ C W M O ~ m o ° c ~ J ¢ O Z - c c W t.{) O N ~_ O O ,.,., x O O O O O O O ~ O O CO ~ ~ M N ~ p r- N M O ^~ L L ~o ~~ ~ s- N t~ ,,-~ /-- `---- ~. ~ U 0 U ^, W i~ C (~ ~ . U N o ~ L m ~' - a~ Q f6 t O N O O N O O O N ti O O N O O N to O N O O N M O O O O O O O O O O O O N O CO ~ ~' M N ~ O ~ (~j ~j 1 1 U _T f6 c Q L U N (a O .Q (a J 0 ca m m ai 0 o~ z o o= V Z ~ V_ c CC ~ L.L m o . Y ° Z ~ d = m C W W N W J W 0 W W ~ ~ 00 CO ~t N O N d' CO 00 O .~ L ~, ~ o ~~ ~ ~ N ~ ~' ~ ~ ~ ~ o - o 0 0 ~ C7 ~ ~ m -' o , ~ ~ ~ ~ ' .~ c m Q o U W U - c~ m O L m >- O N O O N O O N ti O O N O O N O O N 0 N M O O O N O 00 CO ~ N O N ~ C~ 00 N L U ::. c Q L c~ 2 U f~ ..-. O m J O f4 N m U 0 o~ z o o~ V Z ~ ~~ Q ti LL m ~ Z z m W W N W J cc W W LL W ^~ L .~ O O In O ~ O O ~ O ~ O ~ N N ~ r- ~ O ~ `~ ~ N N M M O ~ ~ N U ~ ~~ 0 ~ \° f9 . ~ ~ } Q ~ ~ L 0 .. __. _._.. __,. __ L ., _ ._. N ~ O N 'O ~ N ~X U ~ o ~ O Q ~ a ~ ~ U v _ ~ I ....... ~ ~., A` .~~ ~ L ~ x ~ N _ O ~ m ~ ~ X Q ~ ~~ ~ ~ U O `~ U _ ~ U ,~ rn o O U ~ Qa ~ ~ ~ ~ m O L r O N O O N W O O N O O N O O O O N O O N M O O In N O O (~ O M O O N ~ M r N r r i i i r r r ~ ~ ~ N U _A f4 Q L ca (6 N m L L aN~ {.L _~ cO CC C O U vi U N f~ O f0 J O c~ L M~ W U O O o~ z o O 6 V S `~ C CC ~m o . Y = z~ ¢_ m W W t/1 W J W w W F-~ ^ ~ L ^ ~ O L V 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~~ M N ~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ~ r- ~ ~ ~- r- O O H CO ~~ M N ~ O N ~ CV L ~ ^^L LL m U a` Q L ca m N L 0 C L U O O N M O O N W O O N O O N N O O N O O O N O O O r O O O TOT V! r N r O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O~ ~ ~t M N ~ 0 0 00 f~ Cfl ~~ M N ~ U :_. _T f0 c Q L Q~ 2 N U x w c c~ L a~ Y L 3 m Z m c 0 m a~ L ••w~ VJ ai U L ••0~ v/ o~ z o o= ~~ x • v o cc ~ ~ m Q ~ Y ° z Z ~ Q V m C W W {./) W J Q W W W F~ ^~ L a ~ ~ O L M N ~ O ~ 0 ~ O ~ r ~ ~ ~ 0 0 C O ~ ~ N ~ O N O N 0 O O N 0 N M O O N O O O N A 1 _ //'~{ ~ V /~ / VJ r~ V '~~ // V i /~ / V' r r /~ T V J TT V/ ~ ry CO / W X r ~ ~ N U r a W N U 00 C 0 L ~ A 1 _ O T/~ t// ^ ,, W ~ ~~ ~ ~ r ~ M ~ ti ~ rn o r N O Z T Q 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ M N ~ O O 00 f` O ~ ~ M N ~- ~ ~ ~ ~ U w _~ (B c Q `m c~ 2 uS .~ c Q U .~ O C 0 U W w 0 m a~ m c L L '~ VJ 2~ J U L ''~^ vJ o~ z o o= V ~_ 2 `J Q LL m O ~ Y = Z ~ Q m W ec W W J Q W W W F~ .~ V O ^~ ~ O~ O~ O Ln 0 lf') p~ 0~ 0~ 0 ~~ M ('7 N N E r- O O O, ~ r" N N M O N Q '_~ _. r -a c`a a~ ~ ~ ~ ~Q ~ L C U N O N O O O N O O N O O N CO O O lf) O N O O N M O O ~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O In O In O In O N ~~ M ('7 N N ~ ~ O O O ~ ~ N N M ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U :.. _A (6 C Q a~ c~ 2 o` c 0 C~ 0 L m 0 m ui U 7 O N o~ z o 0 x • ~o ~~ LL m 0 ~ Y ° z Z ~ Q = m W W N W CC J Q W v W W ^~ a ~~ O O~ O~ O~ O ~ O In O H O ~ O I~ Cfl CO ~~ '~ ~ M M N N ~ X 0 0 0 N Q ~ ~ ~ ~ = ~ c a ~ ~ ~___-__ ~ ~. ti ~ ~ rn ~ c~ m m U ~ ~ c ^L I..L m a~ rn H a c ~ ~ ~ ~ a i ~ ~ ~ .r .~ c 7 ~ O U U ~ N ._ 0 ~ C U O N O O N O O N ti O O N O O O N O O N O N M O N N O O N O O N O O O N r O~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O~ f~ Cfl Cfl ~ ~ ~ tt M M N N ~ r- O O U ::. _A (0 c Q a~ c~ 2 O C i 0 C~ 0 c~ 0 m ai L ,,0^ vJ c~ z o o` ~~ x • v a ~~ '~ m o . ~~ Z z ~ ¢_ m W CC W N W J Q W 0 W LL W H O O O O O O O O O O O Cfl ~ ~ M N r p ~ N M d' O O N O O N O ~ O O = N o U O ~ O ~ N ~ O .a O ~ N ~ ~ ~ O ~ O .Q N ~ .~ ~ ~ O ~ O ~ N ~ c M N ~ a~ O ~ O °x" N ~ m O o N O vii O ~ O ° N U ~ O r Z O O O O O O O O O O O~ CO In ~ M N ~ O ~ N M ~ U :_. _~ (0 C Q a~ m 2 uS L 0 L C7 0 -a c~ 0 m N .N _~ f~ C Q U .~ O C O U w 0 m m m ui L ''~^ v/ o~ z o o~ a ~~ _ • v o ~~ ~m o . Y Z ° ¢_ m W CC W N W J Q W 0 W LL. W L W a~ rn ~ a? a~i ~ -a ~ ~ ~ii~ U rn ~ ~ ~ o ~ I- ~ ~ N O O O O O I 1 1 1 I I I 1 1 I i i i i i i 1 1 I O I O O N ' O O ~ N ~ i L r ~ ~ ~ ^ ~ ~ ' W i ~ i Q ~ ^`` ^ W ~ ~ Q //~~ VJ ' i i 1 I C L ~ ~ N O 0 0 0 0 a~ ca H 0 L 0 M W 0 m U L U ai L ~ ^ ,, vJ '^ W t L .Q W U N ~t N Z ~ 0 U /~ L Q W H Z ~ O OC ~ C S L < M c vo .~ ~ N L ~ LLm ~ ~ ~ C C ~ o C z Z ~ O ¢ _ ~ ~ W s ~ ~ //~/~ VJ L W D N W N ~ ~ J Q Z °C W 0 W W ~~ ~~ L N ~ C ~ . Q .- C ~ O O LL ~ ~ U V C Ef} V ~ D 1 0~ , 0 l N ~ ~ ~ N i Cfl Efl ~ ~ ~ ~ • ~ m ~ ~ ~ ~ O N ~ ~ U - ~ m ~ ~ ~ ~. ~ Q _ r~ r O ~ M ~ ~ U T C i-: ~ 6F} J J ~ "'' (~ Q Q ~ m Q _T U ~ U ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~ L U ~ M O l ~ M ~ ~ ~ N O i ~ N ~ ~ m ~ ~} ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ U O f- m ~ C N ~ Q T~ ¢ r r ~ O O M CO ~ ~ ~, ~ ~ O O O ~ ~ ~ C ~ J LL u ~ ~ ~ :-~ ~3 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 0 O ~ N N 0 CO d ' N O ~ N O 0 O N U c6 C ai Q -x~ L W N ~ 2 ~ ~ c O o o ~ O ~ ~ ~ O }' o N ~ m ~ N L V 3 ~ rn ~ c a 0 J Q _T U (0 N Y N a N 0 >, U (0 LL m c a c ~ ~ O L N ~- Z o N a o¢ r ~ ~ ~ •v = ~ ~ V c ~ ~ ~ m U ~ Y = ~ Z o +~ Q x ~ m s Lei j ~ OC U N c O J Z Q W W LL W II O O O O O O O O O O O O p O N ~- O O M ~ CO to ~ M N r O O N N N ~- ~ ~ r r r r ~ ~ ~ O M ~ ~,~ =>a . 1 1 ~ ~' 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 k 1 1 1 1 i 1 {{ 1 5@ 1 ~ s 1 ¢;Y: ~ 1 a ~ ~ ~ (6 . fE ~~ j ~ ~ Z , 07 M ~ f~ ~ ~ O ~ O ~ N Q Z ~ ~ I I , 1 ~ ~ p ~ N a C N r-+ M m O ~ M ~ + ~ +r O .~ U N ~ + Y r-- ~ N U ~ U r ~ ~ C .~ m N ~ ~ W + m `~Z, W ^~ ~~//~~ W W O ~T1r--~ ~ rn U :r ca C Q N ca 2 L O C L /~ V w a c~ 0 m N ca t U C N N .` LL L O ~ 0 ~ ~ Z o ~ O }~ ~ V O T ^ V o +~ ~ ~ ._ ~ m O Y ° Z ~ Q = m CO ++ N r W W W J Q W W W +j O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N ~ O d7 00 f~ CO ~ ~ M N ~ O O N N N ~ ~ ~ r ~- r r ~ r ~ F N ~ O ~ r- ~ O 00 ~ O In ~ M N ~ 0 0 i O N O O O N M O O N ti O O N O O O N In O O N O O N M O O N N O O N r O O N O O O N O ~r W N N ~ O O 00 ti O ~ ~ M N ~ O~ r r r U ~.. c Q L c~ 2 `o c a~ 0 C~ 0 v m 0 m ui U 7 O o~ z o c< ~~ x v _ o oc ~ ~m o . Y = z ~ ¢_ m W W N W J Q W w W w 2 ~-- ;. L O r.. C L CO ~ ~ M N r O ~ O N VJ O O N W 0 N O N O N U _A f~ c Q L c~ 2 uS a~ U C (~ C LL L 'Q V 0 m 0 m ui U L ''~^ vJ o~ z o o¢ ~_ x • V ~ o ~ ~ L.L m ~ ~ Y ° z Z ~ Q= m~ W W t/1 W J Q W W LL W Q ~ ~.}~ ~ ~ ~ V M N [- ~ l() In In In In In l(') L(') In ~ ~ 00 f~ CO ~ ~ M tV ~ O ~ ~ y~ ~ T ^ r Q ~ ^ // v/ ~_ " ~a ~:,Z f~_~ ` ,-~ ~`- f. (~N N L.L m M W M W N~ ~ m ~ (B -~ ~ ~ O Q ~ sr O m ! ~ U = c~ ~ :~ o ~ I ~ ~ m ~ > ~ O p~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ 0 U~ m U r O N N W O O r C O N 0 In li) In In L() In Ln l1) In In N M N r V U :_. _A f6 C Q a~ ca 2 uS L 0 C L '~ V M~ W U C J L a~ ai U L ''0^ vJ D zo o~ ~_ x~ v oc ~ m O . Y ° Z ~ Q = v m z W cc W N W J Q W v W LL W ~~ O O O O O O O O O O Ln O ~ O In O ~ O ~f' M ('7 N N r- ~ O O V ^~ ~+ C /~ U ~I / ~ ,, ~~ ,` O O N O M O ~ O ~ N ~ Q `~^ ~ VJ I N L O r _~ L L Q ~CC C L M L N L O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ O ~ M ('7 N N r- ~ O O U _~ C Q a~ ca O C N O O (C O m U L '~ VJ Z o O V v 0 ~~ LLm 0 Y ° Z ~ Q = m W W N W J Q W W I.L W x F s ^~ L a .~ O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O In O lC) O~ O~ O~ O~ O~ O Ln 00 f` I` CO CO In ~~~ M M N N ~ ~ 0 0 a a h ^ rr ~ vJ I t I I 1 I 1 t 1 1 I i i i i 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 c~ m L L 1 1 r ~ M1 W ~ ~ 1 ~ ~ 1 M W ~ 1 ~ Q L 0 AA,, I L 1 ~ 1 Y ~ ~ /y ~ LL j U >+ J ~1 ~~ i Q ~ i L ~ ~ 1 : AA `~ W I ~~ i O ~ t c ~-- ~ ~ U ~ i L ~ ~ ~ r O N O O N W O O N O O /1 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N O In O~ O~ O In O~ O~ O~ O In DO I~ I` CO Cfl ~ ~ ~ [t ('7 M N N r- ~ O U _~ f6 C Q m` c~ 2 vi o` c L Q M~ W U C T J L L L '~ VJ 0 W H Z o 0 C V _ ~ V c LL m ~L = Z ~ ~Q Y W C W W t/1 W J Q W 0 W W ~~ U ~' W M N r O ~ ~ ~ r r r r O 00 ~ Q 0 0 ~~ M U L X N C M N ~ O ~ 0~0 ~ r r r r-. O r O N 00 O O N O O O N O O N N O O N O O O N O O O r (O O O r O r N O O r O O O 00 O r C~ M O r N r O r _~ f6 c Q L _I L c a~ 0 C~ w 0 L m ai L 0 a~ a~ .~ N 0 a~ m rn c c~ U X N a~ rn .~ 3 a~ cLa c~ 0 .~ is m N co N N a~ N 0 o~ 0 z~ o= ~~ v cc ~a o Y Z Z ~ Q = CD W W N W J Q W w W Z O O O O O O O O O O ~ ~ C~ N ~ O r; N ~ d' ~ W O ^ L O Q a~ O ~ O `~ O ~ N ~ m c O ~~ O o L Q O `~ O ~ N ~- .~ U N `~ O ~ O ~ N ~ O o O ~ O E N o c ~ .E O ~ O °' ~ o a CO a~i ~ o rn _~ T~T ~ VJ C r ~ a O O °' r U Q ~ O ~, .°~' O ~' ~ O Z ~ }~ In O ~ O ~ O In O In ~ O r ~ N N ~ ~ ' ~ ~ N N Z I 1 v »~ c Q a~ U fII 0 c~ J O L M~ W _~ a~ 0 0 ui U O o~ Zo o~ ~~ V oc ~ ~ LL m O Y ° Z Z ° Q CO W W t/1 W cc J Q CC W 0 W W S ~~ ~ O In O O In O ~ N N ~- ~ ~ p ~ r ~ N N p ^ ~ L T~ ~o ~~ ~ ~_ O ~ ~ 2 ~ LL -c U a ~ O N ~ ~ ~ a~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o UV a~ c m U C a~ U N Q L L a~ O N O N O N O N O O N p O O O O N ~ C O LL O N t=i C M ~ O ~ O N N O O ~ N N .~ O ~ N = N O o O Z O U _A C Q a~ c~ 2 m t a~ c~ U U C rn Q a~ U C (6 _C C .~ 0 2 a~ a~ ai U 7 O ~ c~ ~ z o o ~ _ a = ~ vo ~ oc LL. m O Y = Z ~ Q = m G W W W J Q W In O ~ O ~ O In O ~ O lC) N L"'L TO N N ~ ~ ~ ~ r- N N ,,, i = ~-- ~ ~ ~ 0 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ r r r r ~ f~ l() ~ r ~ ~ N a a~ VI O O N O O X N C Y U O O O N 0 0 N O N O O O ~ O O ` ` r r r r U r _~ fa C Q N (4 N N H U C f0 C_ LL N U L 'Q v/ o~ z o o< ~~ x v _ o cc ~ o: Y Z z ~ Q OG W OC W N W J Q W 0 W W September 14, 2009 Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy for Fiscal Year 2009 The Interim Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012 A briefing to the Chesterfield County Joint Board Meeting John R. Layman Director/Chief Economist Revenue Forecasting Virginia Department of Taxation verv~ew... Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review • Economic Performance • Actual General Fund Collections • Financial Results Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012 • June 2009 Economic Outlook • August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast 1 The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009... • As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June), estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.) - Real consumer spending declined for the first time in the post-war era. Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Real GDP -0.4 -1.6 Consumer Spending -0.7 -1.3 Employment -1.0 -2.3 Personal Income 3.1 1.6 Wages & Salaries 2.4 0.7 • Employment declines exceeded expectations, dampening income growth. - The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year 2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the previous four years. 2 Similar To The Nation, The Virginia Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was Expected In Fiscal Year 2009... • In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the year, led by a pullback in professional and business services and construction. - The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year 2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to housing (construction and financial activities). Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Employment -0.6 -1.4 Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8 Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1 Personal Income 2.1 2.3 Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2 • Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments. 3 Total General Fund Revenue Collections Collapsed In The Second Half Of The Year... 8% 4% 0% ~% -8% -12% -16% -20% -24% Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date -3.5% -3.7% -3.5% For t: -7 o -9.2% ~ Monthly -Year-to-Date Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0% • Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive months in fiscal year 2009. • For the second half of fiscal year 2009: - Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent; - Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent; - Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent; - Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent; - Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and; - Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent. 4 Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections Finished X298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below Forecast... Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections (millions of dollars) Major Source Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Net Individual Sales Corporate Wills (Recordation) Insurance All Other Revenue Total Revenues Forecast $ 9,154.0 2,348.3 (1,805.0) 9,697.3 2,960.9 685.0 298.1 257.5 715.1 Actual $ 9,138.1 2, 310.4 (1, 967.4) 9,481.1 2,903.4 648.0 314.3 255.0 713.2 Variance Dollars Percent $ (15.9) (0.2) (37.9) (1.6) (162.4) 9.0 (216.2) (2.2) (57.5) (37.0) 16.2 (2.5) (1.9) $ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8) (1.9) (5.4) 5.4 (1.0) (0.3) (2.0) Annual Growth 2.3 (19.2) 17 1 (c~.~) (5.6) (19.8) (31.1) (35.7) (22.1) (9.2) ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2 Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8) Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7 Total Transfers $ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0) Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2) • The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was unexpected growth in individual refunds. - Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent more refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent above the prior year. • Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues) finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast. • The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast for the three sources. 5 Individual Income Tax Refunds Exceeded The Official Estimate By $162.4 Million... • Individual refunds increased 17.1 percent in fiscal year 2009 compared with the forecast of 7.4 percent growth. Individual Income Tax Refunds by Component (millions of dollars) Forecast Actual variance % variance Base 1,510.0 1,744.3 234.3 15.5% Land Preservation 190.0 131.2 -58.8 -31.0% Low Income 105.0 91.9 -13.1 -12.5% Total 1,805.0 1,967.4 162.4 9.0% • The large increase in base refunds implies significant overpayment of estimated income taxes throughout the year as the economy deteriorated. - For the filing season beginning January 1, 2009, TAX issued 2.6 million refunds, up five percent from the prior year. - The average refund size was up a sharp 12 percent. 6 Sales Tax Collections Were $57.5 Million (1.9%) Below the Official Estimate... • Sales tax collections declined 5.6 percent in fiscal year 2009, the largest annual decline on record. Large Sales Tax Payments by Sector FY08 compared with FY09 (millions of dollars) Sector # of Firms FY08 FY09 Housing Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters Department Stores Grocery Stores Retail Trade Restaurants Wholesale Trade Gasoline Stations Other Tota I 157 $465.5 $405.4 -12.9% 6 369.7 375.2 1.5% 111 375.5 348.3 -7.2% 19 288.7 298.6 3.4% 94 232.6 233.2 0.3% 71 124.0 120.9 -2.5% 68 63.6 52.0 -18.3% 17 48.2 47.3 -1.8% 300 228.5 203.9 -10.7% 843 $2,196.3 $2,084.9 -5.1% • Housing-related taxable sales (20% of total) led the weakness in growth in fiscal year 2009, declining 12.9 percent from fiscal year 2008. • Taxable sales from department stores and restaurants (23% of total), two sectors dependent on discretionary consumer spending, declined 6.1 percent from fiscal year 2008. • Adjusted for higher food prices, sales at grocery stores, warehouse clubs, and supercenters (31 % of total) were below fiscal year 2008 levels. 7 The Governor Ordered The Secretary Of Finance In Mid-June To Conduct A Reforecast Of Revenues... • The August 2009 interim revenue forecast is based on the updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the Governor's Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) and the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) . - Global Insight's June 2009 standard forecast for the U.S. and the associated outlook for Virginia were presented to the GABE. - The majority of the Board considered the standard forecast for Virginia too high, with two members recommending a lower growth alternative and six supporting the standard forecast with downward revisions. - Based on GABE members' comments, the June standard forecast for Virginia employment and wages & salaries was reduced halfway to the "False Dawn" pessimistic alternative forecast. - The June GABE and pessimistic alternative forecasts were presented to the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) on August 5, 2009. 8 Global Insight's June U. S. Standard Forecast Is an Update to the November Forecast... • The June standard forecast update includes two additional quarters of economic data. - Real GDP reports for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 were more severe than the November standard or November alternative low-growth forecasts. Percerrt 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 Real GDP History and Forecast Annualized Percent Change • The June standard forecast is rated at a 60% probability by Global Insight - signaling a strong belief in the standard forecast. - The two alternative forecasts - "False Dawn" and "Green Shoots Sprout" -are both weighted at a 20% probability. 9 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2 ^ Official (Nov'08) ^ June Standard ^ June Pessimistic (False Dawn) ^ June Optimistic (Green Shoots Sprout) In the June Standard Forecast, the U- Shaped Growth Path for Virginia Has Become Deeper... • Employment and income growth are not expected to reach a low point until fiscal year 2010, compared with fiscal year 2009 in the official forecast. Key Virginia Economic Indicators Official and June GABE Forecast Annual Percent Change 08 0.9 0.6 Fiscal Year 09 10 11 12 Employment Official (Nov '08) June GABE Personal Income Official (Nov '08) June GABE Wages & Salaries Official (Nov '08) June GABE Average Wage Official (Nov '08) June GABE 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.4 3.4 3.8 10 (0.6) (0.2) (1.4) (1.8) 2.1 2.3 2.3 1.2 2.6 3.2 2.2 1.3 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 1.5 3.4 4.2 2.8 3.9 3.2 4.0 2.8 4.1 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.6 The August Interim Revenue Forecast Incorporates Pessimism From The GACRE Meeting... • Based on GACRE comments: - The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax revenue was adopted. - Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect weak taxable profits. - Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of the housing market has occurred in Virginia. • The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook. - Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the pessimistic alternative scenario. 11 In the August Interim Revenue Forecast, Total General Fund Revenues Have Been Reduced by $1.2 Billion... August Interim Revenue Forecast (millions of dollars) Asa % Fiscal Year 2010 of Total FY09 Official June Annual Major Source Revenues Variance Forecast Forecast Change Growth Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9) $ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1 Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9) 2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6) Refunds (11.8) (162.4) (1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2) Net Individual 66.2 (216.2) 10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0) Sales 20.2 (57.5) 3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1) Corporate 4.8 (37.0) 724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2 Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2 298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6) Insurance 1.9 (2.5) 283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2 All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9) 755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7) Total (Base) 100.0 % $ (298.8) $ 15,126.2 $ 13,943.6 $ (1,182.6) (2.6) °/ Tax Policy Actions Tax Amnesty 38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0 Sales Tax Remitta nce 97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0 Total Revenues ~ $ 15,262.0 $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/d • Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent excluding tax policy actions). 12 Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond Levels Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350, 000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 99g1 99g3 OOg1 OOg3 0181 0183 02g1 02g3 03g1 03g3 0481 04g3 05g1 05g3 06g1 06g3 07g1 07g3 08g1 08g3 0981 ~-Northern Virginia -Hampton Roads --Richmond 39% 22% 11 % (% share of total home sales in Virginia) 13 U.S. and Virginia Employment Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009 (Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted) FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Virginia Gain/Loss 90 109, 817 90 2, 905 91 108, 283 -1, 534 91 2, 828 -77 92 108,640 357 92 2,840 12 93 110,663 2,023 93 2,914 74 94 114,136 3,473 94 3, 005 91 95 117,186 3, 050 95 3, 075 70 96 119,647 2,461 96 3,129 55 97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96 98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92 99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86 00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115 01 132, 047 208 01 3, 527 9 02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30 03 129,839 -534 03 3,487 -10 04 131,442 1,603 04 3,579 92 05 133,624 2,182 05 3,658 79 06 135, 956 2, 332 06 3, 733 75 07 137, 645 1, 689 07 3, 763 30 08 137, 356 -289 08 3, 761 -2 09 131,735 -5,621 09 3,655 -106 Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 14 Overview... Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review • Economic Performance • Actual General Fund Collections • Financial Results Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012 • June 2009 Economic Outlook • August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast 1 The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009... • As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June), estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.) - Real consumer spending declined for the first time in the post-war era. Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Real GDP -0.4 -1.6 Consumer Spending -0.7 -1.3 Employment -1.0 -2.3 Personal Income 3.1 1.6 Wages & Salaries 2.4 0.7 • Employment declines exceeded expectations, dampening income growth. - The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year 2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the previous four years. 2 Similar To The Nation, The Virginia Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was Expected In Fiscal Year 2009... • In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the year, led by a pullback in professional and business services and construction. - The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year 2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to housing (construction and financial activities). Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Employment -0.6 -1.4 Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8 Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1 Personal Income 2.1 2.3 Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2 • Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments. 3 Total General Fund Revenue Collections Collapsed In The Second Half Of The Year... 8% a°~° 0% -4% $% -12% -16% -20% -24% Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date -3.5% _3.7% -3.5% For t: -7 -9.2% ~ Monthly fYear-to-Date Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0% • Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive months in fiscal year 2009. • For the second half of fiscal year 2009: - Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent; - Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent; - Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent; - Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent; - Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and; - Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent. 4 Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections Finished $298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below Forecast... Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections (millions of dollars) Major Source Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Net Individual Sales Corporate Wills (Recordation) Insurance All Other Revenue Forecast $ 9,154.0 2,348.3 (1,805.0) 9,697.3 2,960.9 685.0 298.1 257.5 715.1 Actual $ 9,138.1 2, 310.4 (1, 967.4) 9,481.1 2, 903.4 648.0 314.3 255.0 713.2 Variance Dollars Percent $ (1 5.9) (0.2) (37.9) (1.6) (162.4) 9.0 (216.2) (2.2) (57.5) (37.0) 16.2 (2.5) (1.9) (1.9) (5.4) 5.4 (1.0) (0.3) Annual Growth 2.3 (19.2) 17.1 (6.3) (5.6) (19.8) (31.1) (35.7) (22.1) Total Revenues $ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8) (2.0) % (9.2) ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2 Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8) Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7 Total Transfers $ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0) Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2) • The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was unexpected growth in individual refunds. - Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent more refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent above the prior year. • Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues) finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast. • The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast for the three sources. 5 Individual Income Tax Refunds Exceeded The Official Estimate By $162.4 Million... • Individual refunds increased 17.1 percent in fiscal year 2009 compared with the forecast of 7.4 percent growth. Individual Income Tax Refunds by Component (millions of dollars) Forecast Actual variance % variance Base 1,510.0 1,744.3 234.3 15.5% Land Preservation 190.0 131.2 -58.8 -31.0% Low Income 105.0 91.9 -13.1 -12.5% Total 1,805.0 1,967.4 162.4 9.0% • The large increase in base refunds implies significant overpayment of estimated income taxes throughout the year as the economy deteriorated. - For the filing season beginning January 1, 2009, TAX issued 2.6 million refunds, up five percent from the prior year. - The average refund size was up a sharp 12 percent. 6 Sales Tax Collections Were $57.5 Million (1.9%) Below the Official Estimate... • Sales tax collections declined 5.6 percent in fiscal year 2009, the largest annual decline on record. Large Sales Tax Payments by Sector FY08 compared with FY09 (millions of dollars) Sector # of Firms FY08 FY09 Housing Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters Department Stores Grocery Stores Retail Trade Restaurants Wholesale Trade Gasoline Stations Other Total 157 $465.5 $405.4 -12.9% 6 369.7 375.2 1.5% 111 375.5 348.3 -7.2% 19 288.7 298.6 3.4% 94 232.6 233.2 0.3% 71 124.0 120.9 -2.5% 68 63.6 52.0 -18.3% 17 48.2 47.3 -1.8% 300 228.5 203.9 -10.7% 843 $2,196.3 $2,084.9 -5.1% • Housing-related taxable sales (20% of total) led the weakness in growth in fiscal year 2009, declining 12.9 percent from fiscal year 2008. • Taxable sales from department stores and restaurants (23% of total), two sectors dependent on discretionary consumer spending, declined 6.1 percent from fiscal year 2008. • Adjusted for higher food prices, sales at grocery stores, warehouse clubs, and supercenters (31 % of total) were below fiscal year 2008 levels. 7 The Governor Ordered The Secretary Of Finance In Mid-June To Conduct A Reforecast Of Revenues... • The August 2009 interim revenue forecast is based on the updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the Governor's Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) and the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) . - Global Insight's June 2009 standard forecast for the U.S. and the associated outlook for Virginia were presented to the GABE. - The majority of the Board considered the standard forecast for Virginia too high, with two members recommending a lower growth alternative and six supporting the standard forecast with downward revisions. - Based on GABE members' comments, the June standard forecast for Virginia employment and wages & salaries was reduced halfway to the "False Dawn" pessimistic alternative forecast. - The June GABE and pessimistic alternative forecasts were presented to the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) on August 5, 2009. 8 Global Insight's June U.S. Standard Forecast Is an Update to the November Forecast... • The June standard forecast update includes two additional quarters of economic data. - Real GDP reports for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 were more severe than the November standard or November alternative low-growth forecasts. Real GDP History and Forecast Percerrt Annualized Percent Change s.o 4.0 2.0 ~.~ -2.0 -4.0 -6.~ -8.0 4.8 4.8 3.7 3.4 2.8 2.yt. 3.1 7 .5 1.5 1'1.4 ,g 0.9 .7.0 0.x.4 0.0 -0.2 -0-a.5 -0. 1.1 -1.4 -2• -2.2 -2.2 -2. -3. -4.0 -5.7 ~'3 2009 Q2 Advance Est = -1.0% 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2 ^ Official (Nov'08) ^ June Standard ^ June Pessimistic (False Dawn) ^ June Optimistic (Green Shoots Sprout) • The June standard forecast is rated at a 60% probability by Global Insight - signaling a strong belief in the standard forecast. - The two alternative forecasts - "False Dawn" and "Green Shoots Sprout" -are both weighted at a 20% probability. 9 In the June Standard Forecast, the U- Shaped Growth Path for Virginia Has Become Deeper... • Employment and income growth are not expected to reach a low point until fiscal year 2010, compared with fiscal year 2009 in the official forecast. Key Virginia Economic Indicators Official and June GABE Forecast Annual Percent Change Fiscal Year 08 09 10 11 12 Employment Official (Nov '08) 0.9 (0.6) (0.2) 0.8 1.5 June GABE 0.6 (1.4) (1.8) 0.5 1.5 Personal Income Official (Nov '08) 4.4 2.1 2.3 3.4 4.2 June GABE 4.5 2.3 1.2 2.8 3.9 Wages & Salaries Official (Nov '08) 4.3 2.6 3.2 3.2 4.0 June GABE 4.4 2.2 1.3 2.8 4.1 Average Wage Official (Nov '08) 3.4 3.2 3.4 2.3 2.5 June GABE 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.6 10 The August Interim Revenue Forecast Incorporates Pessimism From The GACRE Meeting... • Based on GACRE comments: - The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax revenue was adopted. - Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect weak taxable profits. - Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of the housing market has occurred in Virginia. • The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook. - Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the pessimistic alternative scenario. 11 In the August Interim Revenue Forecast, Total General Fund Revenues Have Been Reduced by $1.2 Billion... August Interim Revenue Forecast (millions of dollars) Asa% of Total FY09 Major Source Revenues Variance Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9) Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9) Refunds (11.8) (162.4) Net Individual 66.2 (216.2) Sales 20.2 (57.5) Corporate 4.8 (37.0) Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2 Insurance 1.9 (2.5) All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9) Tax Policy Actions Tax Amnesty Sales Tax Remittance Fiscal Year 2010 Official June Annual Forecast Forecast Change Growth $ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1 2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6) (1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2) 10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0) 3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1) 724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2 298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6) 283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2 755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7) 38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0 97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0 Total Revenues $ 15,262.0 $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/d • Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent excluding tax policy actions). 12 $550, $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond Levels Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average erage Sale Price 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 % Growth rthern Virginia $401,018 $355,137 -11% - - - - - mpton Roads 273,718 248,704 -9% hmond 275,590 235,934 -14% Northern Virginia $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 99g1 99g3 OOg1 OOg3 01g1 0183 02g1 0283 0381 03g3 0481 04g3 05g1 05g3 06g1 06g3 07g1 0783 08g1 08g3 09g1 -Northern Virginia ~-Hampton Roads Richmond 39% 22% 11 % (% share of total home sales in Virginia) 13 U.S. and Virginia Employment Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009 (Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted) FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Virginia Gain/Loss 90 109,817 90 2,905 91 108,283 -1,534 91 2,828 -77 92 108, 640 357 92 2, 840 12 93 110, 663 2, 023 93 2, 914 74 94 114,136 3,473 94 3,005 91 95 117,186 3, 050 95 3, 075 70 96 119,647 2,461 96 3,129 55 97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96 98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92 99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86 00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115 01 132, 047 208 01 3, 527 9 02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30 03 129,839 -534 03 3,487 -10 04 131, 442 1, 603 04 3, 579 92 05 133,624 2,182 05 3,658 79 06 135, 956 2, 332 06 3, 733 75 07 137, 645 1, 689 07 3, 763 30 08 137, 356 -289 08 3, 761 -2 09 131,735 -5,621 09 3,655 -106 Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 14 September 14, 2009 Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy for Fiscal Year 2009 The Interim Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012 A briefing to the Chesterfield County Joint Board Meeting John R. Layman Director/Chief Economist Revenue Forecasting Virginia Department of Taxation verv~ew... Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review • Economic Performance • Actual General Fund Collections • Financial Results Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012 • June 2009 Economic Outlook • August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast 1 The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009... • As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June), estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.) - Real consumer spending declined for the first time in the post-war era. Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Real GDP -0.4 -1.6 Consumer Spending -0.7 Employment -1.0 Personal Income 3.1 Wages & Salaries 2.4 • Employment declines exceeded ex~ income growth. -1.3 -2.3 1.6 0.7 ~ectations, dampening - The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year 2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the previous four years. 2 Similar To The Nation, The Virginia Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was Expected In Fiscal Year 2009... • In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the year, led by a pullback in professional and business services and construction. - The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year 2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to housing (construction and financial activities). Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year FY09 FY09 Forecast Actual Employment -0.6 -1.4 Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8 Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1 Personal Income 2.1 2.3 Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2 • Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments. 3 Total General Fund Revenue Collections Collapsed In The Second Half Of The Year... s°i° 4% 0% ~% -8% -12% -16% -20% -24% Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0% • Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive months in fiscal year 2009. • For the second half of fiscal year 2009: - Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent; - Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent; - Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent; - Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent; - Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and; - Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent. 4 Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections Finished $298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below Forecast... Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections (millions of dollars) Variance Annual Maior Source Forecast Actual Dollars Percent Growth Withholding $ 9,154.0 $ 9,138.1 $ (15.9) (0.2) % 2.3 Nonwithholding 2,348.3 2,310.4 (37.9) (1.6) (19.2) Refunds (1,805.0) (1,967.4) (162.4) 9.0 17.1 Net Individual 9,697.3 9,481.1 (216.2) (2.2) (6.3) Sales 2,960.9 2,903.4 (57.5) (1.9) (5.6) Corporate 685.0 648.0 (37.0) (5.4) (19.8) Wills (Recordation) 298.1 314.3 16.2 5.4 (31.1) Insurance 257.5 255.0 (2.5) (1.0) (35.7) All Other Revenue 715.1 713.2 (1.9) (0.3) (22.1) Total Revenues $ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8) (2.0) % (9.2) ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2 Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8) Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7 Total Transfers $ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0) Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2) • The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was unexpected growth in individual refunds. - Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent more refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent above the prior year. • Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues) finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast. • The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast for the three sources. 5 Individual Income Tax Refunds Exceeded The Official Estimate By X162.4 Million... • Individual refunds increased 17.1 percent in fiscal year 2009 compared with the forecast of 7.4 percent growth. Individual Income Tax Refunds by Component (millions of dollars) Forecast Actual variance % variance Base 1,510.0 1,744.3 234.3 15.5% Land Preservation 190.0 131.2 -58.8 -31.0% Low Income 105.0 91.9 -13.1 -12.5% Total 1,805.0 1,967.4 162.4 9.0% • The large increase in base refunds implies significant overpayment of estimated income taxes throughout the year as the economy deteriorated. - For the filing season beginning January 1, 2009, TAX issued 2.6 million refunds, up five percent from the prior year. - The average refund size was up a sharp 12 percent. 6 Sales Tax Collections Were X57.5 Million (1.9%) Below the Official Estimate... • Sales tax collections declined 5.6 percent in fiscal year 2009, the largest annual decline on record. Large Sales Tax Payments by Sector FY08 compared with FY09 (millions of dollars) Sector # of Firms FY08 FY09 % change Housing 157 $465.5 $405.4 -12.9% Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters 6 369.7 375.2 1.5% Department Stores 111 375.5 348.3 -7.2% Grocery Stores 19 288.7 298.6 3.4% Retail Trade 94 232.6 233.2 0.3% Restaurants 71 124.0 120.9 -2.5% Wholesale Trade 68 63.6 52.0 -18.3% Gasoline Stations 17 48.2 47.3 -1.8% Other 300 228.5 203.9 -10.7% Total 843 $2,196.3 $2,084.9 -5.1% • Housing-related taxable sales (20% of total) led the weakness in growth in fiscal year 2009, declining 12.9 percent from fiscal year 2008. • Taxable sales from department stores and restaurants (23% of total), two sectors dependent on discretionary consumer spending, declined 6.1 percent from fiscal year 2008. • Adjusted for higher food prices, sales at grocery stores, warehouse clubs, and supercenters (31 % of total) were below fiscal year 2008 levels. 7 The Governor Ordered The Secretary Of Finance In Mid-June To Conduct A Reforecast Of Revenues... • The August 2009 interim revenue forecast is based on the updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the Governor's Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) and the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) . - Global Insight's June 2009 standard forecast for the U.S. and the associated outlook for Virginia were presented to the GABE. - The majority of the Board considered the standard forecast for Virginia too high, with two members recommending a lower growth alternative and six supporting the standard forecast with downward revisions. - Based on GABE members' comments, the June standard forecast for Virginia employment and wages & salaries was reduced halfway to the "False Dawn" pessimistic alternative forecast. - The June GABE and pessimistic alternative forecasts were presented to the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) on August 5, 2009. 8 Global Insight's June U.S. Standard Forecast Is an Update to the November Forecast... • The June standard forecast update includes two additional quarters of economic data. - Real GDP reports for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 were more severe than the November standard or November alternative low-growth forecasts. Real GDP History and Forecast Percent Annualized Percent Change 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 a.a a.s 3.7 3.4 2.8 2 y2 3.1 77 .5 1.5 11.4 ,g 0.9 .f .0 0.1.4 0.0 -0.2 _O-a.S -0. .1 -1.4 -2• -2.2 -2.2 -2. ~. -4.0 -s.7 ~'3 2009 Q2 Advance Est = -1.0% 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2 ^ Official (Nov'08) ^ June Standard ^ June Pessimistic (False Dawn) ^ June Optimistic (Green Shoots Sprout) • The June standard forecast is rated at a 60% probability by Global Insight - signaling a strong belief in the standard forecast. - The two alternative forecasts - "False Dawn" and "Green Shoots Sprout" -are both weighted at a 20% probability. 9 In the June Standard Forecast, the U- Shaped Growth Path for Virginia Has Become Deeper... • Employment and income growth are not expected to reach a low point until fiscal year 2010, compared with fiscal year 2009 in the official forecast. Key Virginia Economic Indicators Official and June GABE Forecast Annual Percent Change Fiscal Year 08 09 ~ 10 11 12 Employment Official (Nov '08) June GABE Personal Income Official (Nov '08) June GABE Wages & Salaries Official (Nov '08) June GABE Average Wage Official (Nov '08) June GABE 0.9 (0.6) I (0.2) 0.8 1.5 0.6 (1.4) (1.8) 0.5 1.5 4.4 2.1 2.3 3.4 4.2 4.5 2.3 1.2 2.8 3.9 4.3 2.6 3.2 3.2 4.0 4.4 2.2 1.3 2.8 4.1 3.4 3.2 3.4 2.3 2.5 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.6 10 The August Interim Revenue Forecast Incorporates Pessimism From The GA CRE Meeting... • Based on GACRE comments: - The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax revenue was adopted. - Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect weak taxable profits. - Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of the housing market has occurred in Virginia. • The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook. - Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the pessimistic alternative scenario. 11 In the August Interim Revenue Forecast, Total General Fund Revenues Have Been Reduced by $1.2 Billion... August Interim Revenue Forecast (millions of dollars) Asa% of Total FY09 Major Source Revenues Variance Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9) Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9) Refunds (11.8) (162.4) Net Individual 66.2 (216.2) Sales 20.2 (57.5) Corporate 4.8 (37.0) Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2 Insurance 1.9 (2.5) All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9) Fiscal Year 2010 Official June Annual Forecast Forecast Change Growth $ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1 2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6) (1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2) 10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0) 3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1) 724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2 298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6) 283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2 755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7) Total (Base) 100.0 % $ (298.8) ~ $ 15,126.2 $ 13,943.6 $ (1,182.6) (2.6) %~ Tax Policy Actions Tax Amnesty Sales Tax Remittance 38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0 97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0 Total Revenues ~ $ 15,262.0 $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/d • Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent excluding tax policy actions). 12 Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond Levels Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100 000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 99g1 99g3 OOg1 OOg3 01g1 01g3 02g1 02g3 03g1 03g3 04g1 04g3 05g1 05g3 06g1 06g3 07g1 07g3 08g1 08g3 09g1 -+-Northern Virginia tHampton Roads tRichmond ~% share of total home sales in Vrginia) 39% 22% 11% 13 U.S. and Virginia Employment Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009 (Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted) FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Virginia Gain/Loss 90 109, 817 90 2, 905 91 108, 283 -1, 534 91 2, 828 -77 92 108, 640 357 92 2, 840 12 93 110,663 2,023 93 2,914 74 94 114,136 3,473 94 3, 005 91 95 117,186 3,050 95 3,075 70 96 119,647 2,461 96 3,129 55 97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96 98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92 99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86 00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115 01 132, 047 208 01 3, 527 9 02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30 03 129,839 -534 03 3,487 -10 04 131, 442 1, 603 04 3, 579 92 05 133,624 2,182 05 3,658 79 06 135,956 2,332 06 3,733 75 07 137, 645 1, 689 07 3, 763 30 08 137,356 -289 08 3,761 -2 09 131,735 -5,621 09 3,655 -106 Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 14