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September 14, 2009
Review of General Fund Revenues
and the Virginia Economy for
Fiscal Year 2009
The Interim Economic Outlook and
Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years
2010 through 2012
A briefing to the Chesterfield
County Joint Board Meeting
John R. Layman
Director/Chief Economist
Revenue Forecasting
Virginia Department of Taxation
verve w.. .
Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review
• Economic Performance
• Actual General Fund Collections
• Financial Results
Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 throw by 2012
• June 2009 Economic Outlook
• August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast
1
The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than
Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009...
• As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June),
estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first
annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.)
- Real consumer spending declined for the first time in
the post-war era.
Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Real GDP -0.4 -1.6
Consumer Spending -0.7 -1.3
Employment -1.0 -2.3
Personal Income 3.1 1.6
Wages & Salaries 2.4 0.7
• Employment declines exceeded expectations, dampening
income growth.
- The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year
2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the
previous four years.
2
Similar To The Nation, The Virginia
Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was
Expected In Fiscal Year 2009...
• In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the
year, led by a pullback in professional and business
services and construction.
- The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year
2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to
housing (construction and financial activities).
Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Employment -0.6 -1.4
Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8
Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1
Personal Income 2.1 2.3
Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2
• Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to
stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments.
3
Total General Fund Revenue Collections
Collapsed In The Second Half Of The
Year...
$%
4%
0%
~%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
-24%
Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections
FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date
-3.5% -3.7% -3.5%
-9.2%
~ Monthly -Year-to-Date
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0%
• Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive
months in fiscal year 2009.
• For the second half of fiscal year 2009:
- Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent;
- Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent;
- Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent;
- Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent;
- Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and;
- Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent.
4
Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
Finished $298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below
Forecast...
Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
(millions of dollars)
Variance Annual
Major Source Forecast Actual Dollars Percent Growth
Withholding $ 9,154.0 $ 9,138.1 $ (15.9) (0.2) % 2.3
Nonwithholding 2,348.3 2,310.4 (37.9) (1.6) (19.2)
Refunds (1,805.0) (1,967.4) (162.4) 9.0 17.1
Net Individual 9,697.3 9,481.1 (216.2) (2.2) (6.3)
Sales 2,960.9 2,903.4 (57.5) (1.9) (5.6)
Corporate 685.0 648.0 (37.0) (5.4) (19.8)
Wills (Recordation) 298.1 314.3 16.2 5.4 (31.1)
Insurance 257.5 255.0 (2.5) (1.0) (35.7)
All Other Revenue 715.1 713.2 (1.9) (0.3) (22.1)
Total Revenues $ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8) (2.0) % (9.2)
ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2
Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8)
Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7
Total Transfers $ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0)
Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2)
• The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was
unexpected growth in individual refunds.
- Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent m ore
refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent
above the prior year.
• Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues)
finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast.
• The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate
income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast
for the three sources.
5
Individual Income Tax Refunds Exceeded
The Official Estimate By X162.4 Million...
• Individual refunds increased 17.1 percent in fiscal year 2009
compared with the forecast of 7.4 percent growth.
Individual Income Tax Refunds by Component
(millions of dollars)
Forecast Actual variance % variance
Base 1,510.0 1,744.3 234.3 15.5%
Land Preservation 190.0 131.2 -58.8 -31.0%
Low Income 105.0 91.9 -13.1 -12.5%
Total 1,805.0 1,967.4 162.4 9.0%
• The large increase in base refunds implies significant
overpayment of estimated income taxes throughout the year
as the economy deteriorated.
- For the filing season beginning January 1, 2009, TAX
issued 2.6 million refunds, up five percent from the prior
year.
- The average refund size was up a sharp 12 percent.
6
Sales Tax Collections Were X57.5 Million
(1.9%) Below the Official Estimate...
• Sales tax collections declined 5.6 percent in fiscal year
2009, the largest annual decline on record.
Large Sales Tax Payments by Sector
FY08 compared with FY09
(millions of dollars)
Sector
# of Firms FY08
FY09
Housing
Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters
Department Stores
Grocery Stores
Retail Trade
Restaurants
Wholesale Trade
Gasoline Stations
Other
Total
157 $465.5 $405.4 -12.9%
6 369.7 375.2 1.5%
111 375.5 348.3 -7.2%
19 288.7 298.6 3.4%
94 232.6 233.2 0.3%
71 124.0 120.9 -2.5%
68 63.6 52.0 -18.3%
17 48.2 47.3 -1.8%
300 228.5 203.9 -10.7%
843 $2,196.3 $2,084.9 -5.1%
• Housing-related taxable sales (20% of total) led the
weakness in growth in fiscal year 2009, declining 12.9
percent from fiscal year 2008.
• Taxable sales from department stores and restaurants (23%
of total), two sectors dependent on discretionary consumer
spending, declined 6.1 percent from fiscal year 2008.
• Adjusted for higher food prices, sales at grocery stores,
warehouse clubs, and supercenters (31% of total) were
below fiscal year 2008 levels.
7
The Governor Ordered The Secretary Of
Finance In Mid-June To Conduct A
Reforecast Of Revenues...
The August 2009 interim revenue forecast is based on the
updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the
Governor's Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) and the
Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates
(GACRE) .
- Global Insight's June 2009 standard forecast for the
U.S. and the associated outlook for Virginia were
presented to the GABE.
- The majority of the Board considered the standard
forecast for Virginia too high, with two members
recommending a lower growth alternative and six
supporting the standard forecast with downward
revisions.
- Based on GABE members' comments, the June
standard forecast for Virginia employment and wages &
salaries was reduced halfway to the "False Dawn"
pessimistic alternative forecast.
- The June GABE and pessimistic alternative forecasts
were presented to the Governor's Advisory Council on
Revenue Estimates (GACRE) on August 5, 2009.
8
Global Insight's June U.S. Standard
Forecast Is an Update to the November
Forecast...
• The June standard forecast update includes two additional
quarters of economic data.
- Real GDP reports for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the
first quarter of 2009 were more severe than the
November standard or November alternative low-growth
forecasts.
Real GDP
History and Forecast
Percent Annualized Percent Change
s.o
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
4.8 4.8
3.7
3.4
2.8 291 5 3.1
1.5 11.4
.8 0.9 .7.0
0.1.4
0.0
-0.2 _O-a.S -0.
1.1
-1.4
-2• -2.2 -2.2
-2.
-3.
-4.0
-s.7
~'3 2009 Q2 Advance Est = -1.0%
2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2
^ Official (Nov'OS) ~ June Standard
^ June Pessimistic (False Dawn) ^ June Optimistic (Green Shoots Sprout)
• The June standard forecast is rated at a 60% probability by
Global Insight - signaling a strong belief in the standard
forecast.
- The two alternative forecasts - "False Dawn" and "Green
Shoots Sprout" -are both weighted at a 20% probability.
9
In the June Standard Forecast, the U-
Shaped Growth Path for Virginia Has
Become Deeper...
• Employment and income growth are not expected to reach
a low point until fiscal year 2010, compared with fiscal year
2009 in the official forecast.
Key Virginia Economic Indicators
Official and June GABE Forecast
Annual Percent Change
Fiscal Year
08 09 10 11 12
Employment
Official (Nov '08) 0.9 (0.6) (0.2) 0.8 1.5
June GABE 0.6 (1.4) (1.8) 0.5 1.5
Personal Income
Official (Nov '08) 4.4 2.1 2.3 3.4 4.2
June GABE 4.5 2.3 1.2 2.8 3.9
Wages & Salaries
Official (Nov '08) 4.3 2.6 3.2 3.2 4.0
June GABE 4.4 2.2 1.3 2.8 4.1
Average Wage
Official (Nov '08) 3.4 3.2 3.4 2.3 2.5
June GABE 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.6
10
The August Interim Revenue Forecast
Incorporates Pessimism From The GACRE
Meeting...
• Based on GACRE comments:
- The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax
revenue was adopted.
- Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect
weak taxable profits.
- Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of
the housing market has occurred in Virginia.
• The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the
standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook.
- Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of
general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the
pessimistic alternative scenario.
11
In the August Interim Revenue Forecast,
Total General Fund Revenues Have Been
Reduced by $1.2 Billion...
August Interim Revenue Forecast
(millions of dollars)
Asa % Fiscal Year 2010
of Total FY09 Official June Annual
Major Source Revenues Variance Forecast Forecast Change Growth
Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9) $ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1
Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9) 2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6)
Refunds (11.8) (162.4) (1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2)
Net Individual 66.2 (216.2) 10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0)
Sales 20.2 (57.5) 3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1)
Corporate 4.8 (37.0) 724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2
Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2 298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6)
Insurance 1.9 (2.5) 283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2
All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9) 755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7)
Total (Base) 100.0 % $ (298.8) $ 15,126.2 $ 13,943.6 $ (1,182.6) (2.6) °/
Tax Policy Actions
Tax Amnesty 38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0
Sales Tax Remittance 97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0
LTotal Revenues ~ $ 15,262.0_ $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/~
• Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the
second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent
excluding tax policy actions).
12
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond
Levels
Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average
2008 Q2 2009 Q2 % Growth
Northern Virginia $401,018 $355,137 -11% --
Hampton Roads 273,718 248,704 -9%
Richmond 275,590 235,934 -14%
Northern Virginia
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
99g1 99g3 OOg1 OOg3 01g1 01g3 02g1 0283 03g1 03g3 04g1 04g3 05g1 0583 O6g1 06g3 07g1 07g3 08g1 08g3 09g1
tNorthern Virginia ~-Hampton Roads -Richmond
39% 22% 11 % ~% share of total home sales in Virginia)
13
U.S. and Virginia Employment
Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009
(Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted)
FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Vir inia Gain/Loss
90 109, 817 90 2, 905
91 108,283 -1,534 91 2,828 -77
92 108,640 357 92 2,840 12
93 110, 663 2, 023 93 2, 914 74
94 114,136 3,473 94 3,005 91
95 117,186 3,050 95 3,075 70
96 119,647 2,461 96 3,129 55
97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96
98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92
99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86
00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115
01 132, 047 208 01 3, 527 9
02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30
03 129,839 -534 03 3,487 -10
04 131,442 1,603 04 3,579 92
05 133,624 2,182 05 3,658 79
06 135, 956 2, 332 06 3, 733 75
07 137, 645 1, 689 07 3, 763 30
08 137,356 -289 08 3,761 -2
09 131,735 -5,621 09 3,655 -106
Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
14
September 14, 2009
Review of General Fund Revenues
and the Virginia Economy for
Fiscal Year 2009
The Interim Economic Outlook and
Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years
2010 through 2012
A briefing to the Chesterfield
County Joint Board Meeting
John R. Layman
Director/Chief Economist
Revenue Forecasting
Virginia Department of Taxation
verv~ew...
Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review
• Economic Performance
• Actual General Fund Collections
• Financial Results
Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012
• June 2009 Economic Outlook
• August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast
1
The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than
Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009...
• As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June),
estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first
annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.)
- Real consumer spending declined for the first time in
the post-war era.
Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Real GDP -0.4 -1.6
Consumer Spending -0.7 -1.3
Employment -1.0 -2.3
Personal Income 3.1 1.6
Wages & Salaries 2.4 0.7
• Employment declines exceeded expectations, dampening
income growth.
- The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year
2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the
previous four years.
2
Similar To The Nation, The Virginia
Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was
Expected In Fiscal Year 2009...
• In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the
year, led by a pullback in professional and business
services and construction.
- The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year
2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to
housing (construction and financial activities).
Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Employment -0.6 -1.4
Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8
Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1
Personal Income 2.1 2.3
Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2
• Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to
stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments.
3
Total General Fund Revenue Collections
Collapsed In The Second Half Of The
Year...
a°~
4%
0%
~%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
-24%
Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections
FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date
-3.5% -3.7% -3.5%
-7
-9.2%
~ Monthly fYear-to-Date
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0%
• Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive
months in fiscal year 2009.
• For the second half of fiscal year 2009:
- Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent;
- Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent;
- Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent;
- Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent;
- Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and;
- Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent.
4
Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
Finished X298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below
Forecast...
Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
(millions of dollars)
Variance Annual
Major Source Forecast Actual Dollars Percent Growth
Withholding $ 9,154.0 $ 9,138.1 $ (15.9) (0.2) % 2.3
Nonwithholding 2,348.3 2,310.4 (37.9) (1.6) (19.2)
Refunds (1,805.0) (1,967.4) (162.4) 9.0 17.1
Net Individual 9,697.3 9,481.1 (216.2) (2.2) (6.3)
Sales 2,960.9 2,903.4 (57.5) (1.9) (5.6)
Corporate 685.0 648.0 (37.0) (5.4) (19.8)
Wills (Recordation) 298.1 314.3 16.2 5.4 (31.1)
Insurance 257.5 255.0 (2.5) (1.0) (35.7)
All Other Revenue 715.1 713.2 (1.9) (0.3) (22.1)
Total Revenues $ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8) (2.0) % (9.2)
ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2
Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8)
Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7
Total Transfers $ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0)
Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2)
• The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was
unexpected growth in individual refunds.
- Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent more
refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent
above the prior year.
• Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues)
finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast.
• The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate
income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast
for the three sources.
5
The August Interim Revenue Forecast
Incorporates Pessimism From The GACRE
Meeting...
• Based on GACRE comments:
- The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax
revenue was adopted.
- Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect
weak taxable profits.
- Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of
the housing market has occurred in Virginia.
• The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the
standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook.
- Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of
general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the
pessimistic alternative scenario.
11
In the August Interim Revenue Forecast,
Total General Fund Revenues Have Been
Reduced by $1.2 Billion...
August Interim Revenue Forecast
(millions of dollars)
Asa % Fiscal Year 2010
of Total FY09 Official June Annual
Major Source Revenues Variance Forecast Forecast Chanae Growth
Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9) $ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1
Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9) 2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6)
Refunds (11.8) (162.4) (1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2)
Net Individual 66.2 (216.2) 10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0)
Sales 20.2 (57.5) 3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1)
Corporate 4.8 (37.0) 724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2
Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2 298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6)
Insurance 1.9 (2.5) 283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2
All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9) 755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7)
Total (Base) 100.0 % $ (298.8) $ 15,126.2 $ 13,943.6 $ (1,182.6) (2.6) °/
Tax Policy Actions
Tax Amnesty 38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0
Sales Tax Remittance 97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0
Total Revenues ~ $ 15,262.0 $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/
Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the
second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent
excluding tax policy actions).
12
$550,
$500,1
$450,1
$400,(
$350,(
$300, 000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond
Levels
Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average
2008 Q2 2009 Q2 % Growth
'm Virginia $401,018 $355,137 -11% - - --
ton Roads 273,718 248,704 -9%
fond 275,590 235,934 -14%
Northern Virginia
Hampton Roads
-- 1 _ - -
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
99g1 9983 OOg1 OOg3 01g1 01g3 02g1 02g3 03g1 03g3 04g1 0483 0581 05g3 06g1 06g3 07g1 07g3 08g1 0883 09g1
tNorthern Virginia Hampton Roads ~-Richmond
39% 22% 11 % (% share of total home sales in Virginia)
13
U.S. and Virginia Employment
Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009
(Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted)
FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Vir inia Gain/Loss
90 109, 817 90 2, 905
91 108, 283 -1, 534 91 2, 828 -77
92 108, 640 357 92 2, 840 12
93 110,663 2,023 93 2,914 74
94 114,136 3,473 94 3, 005 91
95 117,186 3, 050 95 3, 075 70
96 119, 647 2, 461 96 3,129 55
97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96
98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92
99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86
00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115
01 132,047 208 01 3,527 9
02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30
03 129, 839 -534 03 3,487 -10
04 131, 442 1, 603 04 3, 579 92
05 133, 624 2,182 05 3, 658 79
06 135, 956 2, 332 06 3, 733 75
07 137,645 1,689 07 3, 763 30
08 137, 356 -289 08 3, 761 -2
09 131, 735 -5, 621 09 3, 655 -106
Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
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September 14, 2009
Review of General Fund Revenues
and the Virginia Economy for
Fiscal Year 2009
The Interim Economic Outlook and
Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years
2010 through 2012
A briefing to the Chesterfield
County Joint Board Meeting
John R. Layman
Director/Chief Economist
Revenue Forecasting
Virginia Department of Taxation
verv~ew...
Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review
• Economic Performance
• Actual General Fund Collections
• Financial Results
Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012
• June 2009 Economic Outlook
• August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast
1
The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than
Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009...
• As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June),
estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first
annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.)
- Real consumer spending declined for the first time in
the post-war era.
Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Real GDP -0.4 -1.6
Consumer Spending -0.7 -1.3
Employment -1.0 -2.3
Personal Income 3.1 1.6
Wages & Salaries 2.4 0.7
• Employment declines exceeded expectations, dampening
income growth.
- The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year
2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the
previous four years.
2
Similar To The Nation, The Virginia
Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was
Expected In Fiscal Year 2009...
• In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the
year, led by a pullback in professional and business
services and construction.
- The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year
2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to
housing (construction and financial activities).
Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Employment -0.6 -1.4
Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8
Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1
Personal Income 2.1 2.3
Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2
• Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to
stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments.
3
Total General Fund Revenue Collections
Collapsed In The Second Half Of The
Year...
8%
4%
0%
~%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
-24%
Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections
FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date
-3.5% -3.7% -3.5%
For t: -7
o -9.2%
~ Monthly -Year-to-Date
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0%
• Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive
months in fiscal year 2009.
• For the second half of fiscal year 2009:
- Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent;
- Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent;
- Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent;
- Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent;
- Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and;
- Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent.
4
Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
Finished X298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below
Forecast...
Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
(millions of dollars)
Major Source
Withholding
Nonwithholding
Refunds
Net Individual
Sales
Corporate
Wills (Recordation)
Insurance
All Other Revenue
Total Revenues
Forecast
$ 9,154.0
2,348.3
(1,805.0)
9,697.3
2,960.9
685.0
298.1
257.5
715.1
Actual
$ 9,138.1
2, 310.4
(1, 967.4)
9,481.1
2,903.4
648.0
314.3
255.0
713.2
Variance
Dollars Percent
$ (15.9) (0.2)
(37.9) (1.6)
(162.4) 9.0
(216.2) (2.2)
(57.5)
(37.0)
16.2
(2.5)
(1.9)
$ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8)
(1.9)
(5.4)
5.4
(1.0)
(0.3)
(2.0)
Annual
Growth
2.3
(19.2)
17 1
(c~.~)
(5.6)
(19.8)
(31.1)
(35.7)
(22.1)
(9.2)
ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2
Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8)
Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7
Total Transfers
$ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0)
Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2)
• The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was
unexpected growth in individual refunds.
- Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent more
refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent
above the prior year.
• Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues)
finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast.
• The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate
income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast
for the three sources.
5
Individual Income Tax Refunds Exceeded
The Official Estimate By $162.4 Million...
• Individual refunds increased 17.1 percent in fiscal year 2009
compared with the forecast of 7.4 percent growth.
Individual Income Tax Refunds by Component
(millions of dollars)
Forecast Actual variance % variance
Base 1,510.0 1,744.3 234.3 15.5%
Land Preservation 190.0 131.2 -58.8 -31.0%
Low Income 105.0 91.9 -13.1 -12.5%
Total 1,805.0 1,967.4 162.4 9.0%
• The large increase in base refunds implies significant
overpayment of estimated income taxes throughout the year
as the economy deteriorated.
- For the filing season beginning January 1, 2009, TAX
issued 2.6 million refunds, up five percent from the prior
year.
- The average refund size was up a sharp 12 percent.
6
Sales Tax Collections Were $57.5 Million
(1.9%) Below the Official Estimate...
• Sales tax collections declined 5.6 percent in fiscal year
2009, the largest annual decline on record.
Large Sales Tax Payments by Sector
FY08 compared with FY09
(millions of dollars)
Sector
# of Firms FY08
FY09
Housing
Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters
Department Stores
Grocery Stores
Retail Trade
Restaurants
Wholesale Trade
Gasoline Stations
Other
Tota I
157 $465.5 $405.4 -12.9%
6 369.7 375.2 1.5%
111 375.5 348.3 -7.2%
19 288.7 298.6 3.4%
94 232.6 233.2 0.3%
71 124.0 120.9 -2.5%
68 63.6 52.0 -18.3%
17 48.2 47.3 -1.8%
300 228.5 203.9 -10.7%
843 $2,196.3 $2,084.9 -5.1%
• Housing-related taxable sales (20% of total) led the
weakness in growth in fiscal year 2009, declining 12.9
percent from fiscal year 2008.
• Taxable sales from department stores and restaurants (23%
of total), two sectors dependent on discretionary consumer
spending, declined 6.1 percent from fiscal year 2008.
• Adjusted for higher food prices, sales at grocery stores,
warehouse clubs, and supercenters (31 % of total) were
below fiscal year 2008 levels.
7
The Governor Ordered The Secretary Of
Finance In Mid-June To Conduct A
Reforecast Of Revenues...
• The August 2009 interim revenue forecast is based on the
updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the
Governor's Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) and the
Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates
(GACRE) .
- Global Insight's June 2009 standard forecast for the
U.S. and the associated outlook for Virginia were
presented to the GABE.
- The majority of the Board considered the standard
forecast for Virginia too high, with two members
recommending a lower growth alternative and six
supporting the standard forecast with downward
revisions.
- Based on GABE members' comments, the June
standard forecast for Virginia employment and wages &
salaries was reduced halfway to the "False Dawn"
pessimistic alternative forecast.
- The June GABE and pessimistic alternative forecasts
were presented to the Governor's Advisory Council on
Revenue Estimates (GACRE) on August 5, 2009.
8
Global Insight's June U. S. Standard
Forecast Is an Update to the November
Forecast...
• The June standard forecast update includes two additional
quarters of economic data.
- Real GDP reports for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the
first quarter of 2009 were more severe than the
November standard or November alternative low-growth
forecasts.
Percerrt
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
Real GDP
History and Forecast
Annualized Percent Change
• The June standard forecast is rated at a 60% probability by
Global Insight - signaling a strong belief in the standard
forecast.
- The two alternative forecasts - "False Dawn" and "Green
Shoots Sprout" -are both weighted at a 20% probability.
9
2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2
^ Official (Nov'08) ^ June Standard
^ June Pessimistic (False Dawn) ^ June Optimistic (Green Shoots Sprout)
In the June Standard Forecast, the U-
Shaped Growth Path for Virginia Has
Become Deeper...
• Employment and income growth are not expected to reach
a low point until fiscal year 2010, compared with fiscal year
2009 in the official forecast.
Key Virginia Economic Indicators
Official and June GABE Forecast
Annual Percent Change
08
0.9
0.6
Fiscal Year
09 10
11 12
Employment
Official (Nov '08)
June GABE
Personal Income
Official (Nov '08)
June GABE
Wages & Salaries
Official (Nov '08)
June GABE
Average Wage
Official (Nov '08)
June GABE
4.4
4.5
4.3
4.4
3.4
3.8
10
(0.6) (0.2)
(1.4) (1.8)
2.1 2.3
2.3 1.2
2.6 3.2
2.2 1.3
3.2 3.4
3.7 3.1
0.8 1.5
0.5 1.5
3.4 4.2
2.8 3.9
3.2 4.0
2.8 4.1
2.3 2.5
2.3 2.6
The August Interim Revenue Forecast
Incorporates Pessimism From The GACRE
Meeting...
• Based on GACRE comments:
- The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax
revenue was adopted.
- Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect
weak taxable profits.
- Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of
the housing market has occurred in Virginia.
• The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the
standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook.
- Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of
general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the
pessimistic alternative scenario.
11
In the August Interim Revenue Forecast,
Total General Fund Revenues Have Been
Reduced by $1.2 Billion...
August Interim Revenue Forecast
(millions of dollars)
Asa % Fiscal Year 2010
of Total FY09 Official June Annual
Major Source Revenues Variance Forecast Forecast Change Growth
Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9) $ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1
Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9) 2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6)
Refunds (11.8) (162.4) (1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2)
Net Individual 66.2 (216.2) 10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0)
Sales 20.2 (57.5) 3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1)
Corporate 4.8 (37.0) 724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2
Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2 298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6)
Insurance 1.9 (2.5) 283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2
All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9) 755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7)
Total (Base) 100.0 % $ (298.8) $ 15,126.2 $ 13,943.6 $ (1,182.6) (2.6) °/
Tax Policy Actions
Tax Amnesty 38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0
Sales Tax Remitta nce 97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0
Total Revenues ~ $ 15,262.0 $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/d
• Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the
second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent
excluding tax policy actions).
12
Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond
Levels
Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350, 000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
99g1 99g3 OOg1 OOg3 0181 0183 02g1 02g3 03g1 03g3 0481 04g3 05g1 05g3 06g1 06g3 07g1 07g3 08g1 08g3 0981
~-Northern Virginia -Hampton Roads --Richmond
39% 22% 11 % (% share of total home sales in Virginia)
13
U.S. and Virginia Employment
Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009
(Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted)
FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Virginia Gain/Loss
90 109, 817 90 2, 905
91 108, 283 -1, 534 91 2, 828 -77
92 108,640 357 92 2,840 12
93 110,663 2,023 93 2,914 74
94 114,136 3,473 94 3, 005 91
95 117,186 3, 050 95 3, 075 70
96 119,647 2,461 96 3,129 55
97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96
98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92
99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86
00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115
01 132, 047 208 01 3, 527 9
02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30
03 129,839 -534 03 3,487 -10
04 131,442 1,603 04 3,579 92
05 133,624 2,182 05 3,658 79
06 135, 956 2, 332 06 3, 733 75
07 137, 645 1, 689 07 3, 763 30
08 137, 356 -289 08 3, 761 -2
09 131,735 -5,621 09 3,655 -106
Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
14
Overview...
Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review
• Economic Performance
• Actual General Fund Collections
• Financial Results
Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012
• June 2009 Economic Outlook
• August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast
1
The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than
Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009...
• As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June),
estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first
annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.)
- Real consumer spending declined for the first time in
the post-war era.
Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Real GDP -0.4 -1.6
Consumer Spending -0.7 -1.3
Employment -1.0 -2.3
Personal Income 3.1 1.6
Wages & Salaries 2.4 0.7
• Employment declines exceeded expectations, dampening
income growth.
- The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year
2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the
previous four years.
2
Similar To The Nation, The Virginia
Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was
Expected In Fiscal Year 2009...
• In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the
year, led by a pullback in professional and business
services and construction.
- The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year
2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to
housing (construction and financial activities).
Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Employment -0.6 -1.4
Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8
Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1
Personal Income 2.1 2.3
Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2
• Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to
stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments.
3
Total General Fund Revenue Collections
Collapsed In The Second Half Of The
Year...
8%
a°~°
0%
-4%
$%
-12%
-16%
-20%
-24%
Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections
FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date
-3.5% _3.7% -3.5% For t: -7
-9.2%
~ Monthly fYear-to-Date
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0%
• Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive
months in fiscal year 2009.
• For the second half of fiscal year 2009:
- Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent;
- Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent;
- Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent;
- Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent;
- Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and;
- Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent.
4
Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
Finished $298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below
Forecast...
Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
(millions of dollars)
Major Source
Withholding
Nonwithholding
Refunds
Net Individual
Sales
Corporate
Wills (Recordation)
Insurance
All Other Revenue
Forecast
$ 9,154.0
2,348.3
(1,805.0)
9,697.3
2,960.9
685.0
298.1
257.5
715.1
Actual
$ 9,138.1
2, 310.4
(1, 967.4)
9,481.1
2, 903.4
648.0
314.3
255.0
713.2
Variance
Dollars Percent
$ (1 5.9) (0.2)
(37.9) (1.6)
(162.4) 9.0
(216.2) (2.2)
(57.5)
(37.0)
16.2
(2.5)
(1.9)
(1.9)
(5.4)
5.4
(1.0)
(0.3)
Annual
Growth
2.3
(19.2)
17.1
(6.3)
(5.6)
(19.8)
(31.1)
(35.7)
(22.1)
Total Revenues $ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8) (2.0) % (9.2)
ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2
Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8)
Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7
Total Transfers $ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0)
Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2)
• The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was
unexpected growth in individual refunds.
- Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent more
refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent
above the prior year.
• Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues)
finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast.
• The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate
income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast
for the three sources.
5
Individual Income Tax Refunds Exceeded
The Official Estimate By $162.4 Million...
• Individual refunds increased 17.1 percent in fiscal year 2009
compared with the forecast of 7.4 percent growth.
Individual Income Tax Refunds by Component
(millions of dollars)
Forecast Actual variance % variance
Base 1,510.0 1,744.3 234.3 15.5%
Land Preservation 190.0 131.2 -58.8 -31.0%
Low Income 105.0 91.9 -13.1 -12.5%
Total 1,805.0 1,967.4 162.4 9.0%
• The large increase in base refunds implies significant
overpayment of estimated income taxes throughout the year
as the economy deteriorated.
- For the filing season beginning January 1, 2009, TAX
issued 2.6 million refunds, up five percent from the prior
year.
- The average refund size was up a sharp 12 percent.
6
Sales Tax Collections Were $57.5 Million
(1.9%) Below the Official Estimate...
• Sales tax collections declined 5.6 percent in fiscal year
2009, the largest annual decline on record.
Large Sales Tax Payments by Sector
FY08 compared with FY09
(millions of dollars)
Sector
# of Firms FY08 FY09
Housing
Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters
Department Stores
Grocery Stores
Retail Trade
Restaurants
Wholesale Trade
Gasoline Stations
Other
Total
157 $465.5 $405.4 -12.9%
6 369.7 375.2 1.5%
111 375.5 348.3 -7.2%
19 288.7 298.6 3.4%
94 232.6 233.2 0.3%
71 124.0 120.9 -2.5%
68 63.6 52.0 -18.3%
17 48.2 47.3 -1.8%
300 228.5 203.9 -10.7%
843 $2,196.3 $2,084.9 -5.1%
• Housing-related taxable sales (20% of total) led the
weakness in growth in fiscal year 2009, declining 12.9
percent from fiscal year 2008.
• Taxable sales from department stores and restaurants (23%
of total), two sectors dependent on discretionary consumer
spending, declined 6.1 percent from fiscal year 2008.
• Adjusted for higher food prices, sales at grocery stores,
warehouse clubs, and supercenters (31 % of total) were
below fiscal year 2008 levels.
7
The Governor Ordered The Secretary Of
Finance In Mid-June To Conduct A
Reforecast Of Revenues...
• The August 2009 interim revenue forecast is based on the
updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the
Governor's Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) and the
Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates
(GACRE) .
- Global Insight's June 2009 standard forecast for the
U.S. and the associated outlook for Virginia were
presented to the GABE.
- The majority of the Board considered the standard
forecast for Virginia too high, with two members
recommending a lower growth alternative and six
supporting the standard forecast with downward
revisions.
- Based on GABE members' comments, the June
standard forecast for Virginia employment and wages &
salaries was reduced halfway to the "False Dawn"
pessimistic alternative forecast.
- The June GABE and pessimistic alternative forecasts
were presented to the Governor's Advisory Council on
Revenue Estimates (GACRE) on August 5, 2009.
8
Global Insight's June U.S. Standard
Forecast Is an Update to the November
Forecast...
• The June standard forecast update includes two additional
quarters of economic data.
- Real GDP reports for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the
first quarter of 2009 were more severe than the
November standard or November alternative low-growth
forecasts.
Real GDP
History and Forecast
Percerrt Annualized Percent Change
s.o
4.0
2.0
~.~
-2.0
-4.0
-6.~
-8.0
4.8 4.8
3.7
3.4
2.8 2.yt. 3.1
7 .5
1.5 1'1.4
,g 0.9 .7.0
0.x.4
0.0
-0.2 -0-a.5 -0.
1.1
-1.4
-2• -2.2 -2.2
-2.
-3.
-4.0
-5.7
~'3 2009 Q2 Advance Est = -1.0%
2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2
^ Official (Nov'08) ^ June Standard
^ June Pessimistic (False Dawn) ^ June Optimistic (Green Shoots Sprout)
• The June standard forecast is rated at a 60% probability by
Global Insight - signaling a strong belief in the standard
forecast.
- The two alternative forecasts - "False Dawn" and "Green
Shoots Sprout" -are both weighted at a 20% probability.
9
In the June Standard Forecast, the U-
Shaped Growth Path for Virginia Has
Become Deeper...
• Employment and income growth are not expected to reach
a low point until fiscal year 2010, compared with fiscal year
2009 in the official forecast.
Key Virginia Economic Indicators
Official and June GABE Forecast
Annual Percent Change
Fiscal Year
08 09 10 11 12
Employment
Official (Nov '08) 0.9 (0.6) (0.2) 0.8 1.5
June GABE 0.6 (1.4) (1.8) 0.5 1.5
Personal Income
Official (Nov '08) 4.4 2.1 2.3 3.4 4.2
June GABE 4.5 2.3 1.2 2.8 3.9
Wages & Salaries
Official (Nov '08) 4.3 2.6 3.2 3.2 4.0
June GABE 4.4 2.2 1.3 2.8 4.1
Average Wage
Official (Nov '08) 3.4 3.2 3.4 2.3 2.5
June GABE 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.6
10
The August Interim Revenue Forecast
Incorporates Pessimism From The GACRE
Meeting...
• Based on GACRE comments:
- The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax
revenue was adopted.
- Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect
weak taxable profits.
- Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of
the housing market has occurred in Virginia.
• The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the
standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook.
- Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of
general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the
pessimistic alternative scenario.
11
In the August Interim Revenue Forecast,
Total General Fund Revenues Have Been
Reduced by $1.2 Billion...
August Interim Revenue Forecast
(millions of dollars)
Asa%
of Total FY09
Major Source Revenues Variance
Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9)
Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9)
Refunds (11.8) (162.4)
Net Individual 66.2 (216.2)
Sales 20.2 (57.5)
Corporate 4.8 (37.0)
Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2
Insurance 1.9 (2.5)
All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9)
Tax Policy Actions
Tax Amnesty
Sales Tax Remittance
Fiscal Year 2010
Official June Annual
Forecast Forecast Change Growth
$ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1
2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6)
(1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2)
10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0)
3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1)
724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2
298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6)
283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2
755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7)
38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0
97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0
Total Revenues $ 15,262.0 $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/d
• Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the
second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent
excluding tax policy actions).
12
$550,
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond
Levels
Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average
erage Sale Price
2008 Q2 2009 Q2 % Growth
rthern Virginia $401,018 $355,137 -11% - - - - -
mpton Roads 273,718 248,704 -9%
hmond 275,590 235,934 -14%
Northern Virginia
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
99g1 99g3 OOg1 OOg3 01g1 0183 02g1 0283 0381 03g3 0481 04g3 05g1 05g3 06g1 06g3 07g1 0783 08g1 08g3 09g1
-Northern Virginia ~-Hampton Roads Richmond
39% 22% 11 % (% share of total home sales in Virginia)
13
U.S. and Virginia Employment
Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009
(Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted)
FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Virginia Gain/Loss
90 109,817 90 2,905
91 108,283 -1,534 91 2,828 -77
92 108, 640 357 92 2, 840 12
93 110, 663 2, 023 93 2, 914 74
94 114,136 3,473 94 3,005 91
95 117,186 3, 050 95 3, 075 70
96 119,647 2,461 96 3,129 55
97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96
98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92
99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86
00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115
01 132, 047 208 01 3, 527 9
02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30
03 129,839 -534 03 3,487 -10
04 131, 442 1, 603 04 3, 579 92
05 133,624 2,182 05 3,658 79
06 135, 956 2, 332 06 3, 733 75
07 137, 645 1, 689 07 3, 763 30
08 137, 356 -289 08 3, 761 -2
09 131,735 -5,621 09 3,655 -106
Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
14
September 14, 2009
Review of General Fund Revenues
and the Virginia Economy for
Fiscal Year 2009
The Interim Economic Outlook and
Revenue Forecast for Fiscal Years
2010 through 2012
A briefing to the Chesterfield
County Joint Board Meeting
John R. Layman
Director/Chief Economist
Revenue Forecasting
Virginia Department of Taxation
verv~ew...
Fiscal Year 2009 Year-in-Review
• Economic Performance
• Actual General Fund Collections
• Financial Results
Updated Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 through 2012
• June 2009 Economic Outlook
• August 2009 Interim Revenue Forecast
1
The U.S. Economy Deteriorated More Than
Was Anticipated In Fiscal Year 2009...
• As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June),
estimated real GDP declined 1.6 percent. (This is the first
annual decline since 1975, which registered -1.7 percent.)
- Real consumer spending declined for the first time in
the post-war era.
Summary of Key U.S. Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Real GDP -0.4 -1.6
Consumer Spending -0.7
Employment -1.0
Personal Income 3.1
Wages & Salaries 2.4
• Employment declines exceeded ex~
income growth.
-1.3
-2.3
1.6
0.7
~ectations, dampening
- The U.S. economy shed 5.7 million jobs in fiscal year
2009, erasing nearly all the gains accrued over the
previous four years.
2
Similar To The Nation, The Virginia
Economy Shed More Jobs Than Was
Expected In Fiscal Year 2009...
• In Virginia, job losses accelerated in the second half of the
year, led by a pullback in professional and business
services and construction.
- The Virginia economy shed 53,800 jobs in fiscal year
2009, of which 28,700 or 53 percent were related to
housing (construction and financial activities).
Summary of Key Virginia Economic Indicators
Percent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year
FY09 FY09
Forecast Actual
Employment -0.6 -1.4
Professional/Business 2.2 -0.8
Construction/Mining -3.5 -10.1
Personal Income 2.1 2.3
Wages & Salaries 2.6 2.2
• Income growth is projected to be near expectations due to
stronger-than-projected growth in net transfer payments.
3
Total General Fund Revenue Collections
Collapsed In The Second Half Of The
Year...
s°i°
4%
0%
~%
-8%
-12%
-16%
-20%
-24%
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Monthly Growth: 2.9% -6.6% -7.4% -1.0% -4.6% -2.6% -15.0% -13.6% -13.9% -19.7% -15.6% -8.0%
• Collections declined an unprecedented eleven consecutive
months in fiscal year 2009.
• For the second half of fiscal year 2009:
- Payroll withholding tax collections fell 1.0 percent;
- Individual nonwithholding declined 24.8 percent;
- Individual refunds increased 17.0 percent;
- Sales tax collections declined 5.9 percent;
- Corporate income tax receipts fell 19.0 percent, and;
- Recordation taxes declined 16.8 percent.
4
Growth in Total General Fund Revenue Collections
FY09 Monthly and Year-to-Date
Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
Finished $298.8 Million (2.0 Percent) Below
Forecast...
Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
(millions of dollars)
Variance Annual
Maior Source Forecast Actual Dollars Percent Growth
Withholding $ 9,154.0 $ 9,138.1 $ (15.9) (0.2) % 2.3
Nonwithholding 2,348.3 2,310.4 (37.9) (1.6) (19.2)
Refunds (1,805.0) (1,967.4) (162.4) 9.0 17.1
Net Individual 9,697.3 9,481.1 (216.2) (2.2) (6.3)
Sales 2,960.9 2,903.4 (57.5) (1.9) (5.6)
Corporate 685.0 648.0 (37.0) (5.4) (19.8)
Wills (Recordation) 298.1 314.3 16.2 5.4 (31.1)
Insurance 257.5 255.0 (2.5) (1.0) (35.7)
All Other Revenue 715.1 713.2 (1.9) (0.3) (22.1)
Total Revenues $ 14,613.9 $ 14,315.1 $ (298.8) (2.0) % (9.2)
ABC Profits 36.6 44.1 7.5 20.5 22.2
Sales Tax (0.25%) 222.1 213.4 (8.7) (3.9) (5.8)
Transfers 148.2 149.0 0.8 0.5 62.7
Total Transfers $ 406.9 $ 406.5 $ (0.4) (0.1) % (50.0)
Total General Fund $ 15,020.8 $ 14,721.6 $ (299.2) (2.0) % (11.2)
• The major driver of the fiscal year 2009 revenue shortfall was
unexpected growth in individual refunds.
- Compared to fiscal year 2008, TAX issued 28.8 percent more
refunds between April and June, with June's total 110.2 percent
above the prior year.
• Withholding and sales tax collections (83 percent of total revenues)
finished a combined 0.6 percent below forecast.
• The three most volatile sources, individual nonwithholding, corporate
income tax, and wills, finished 1.8 percent below the official forecast
for the three sources.
5
Individual Income Tax Refunds Exceeded
The Official Estimate By X162.4 Million...
• Individual refunds increased 17.1 percent in fiscal year 2009
compared with the forecast of 7.4 percent growth.
Individual Income Tax Refunds by Component
(millions of dollars)
Forecast Actual variance % variance
Base 1,510.0 1,744.3 234.3 15.5%
Land Preservation 190.0 131.2 -58.8 -31.0%
Low Income 105.0 91.9 -13.1 -12.5%
Total 1,805.0 1,967.4 162.4 9.0%
• The large increase in base refunds implies significant
overpayment of estimated income taxes throughout the year
as the economy deteriorated.
- For the filing season beginning January 1, 2009, TAX
issued 2.6 million refunds, up five percent from the prior
year.
- The average refund size was up a sharp 12 percent.
6
Sales Tax Collections Were X57.5 Million
(1.9%) Below the Official Estimate...
• Sales tax collections declined 5.6 percent in fiscal year
2009, the largest annual decline on record.
Large Sales Tax Payments by Sector
FY08 compared with FY09
(millions of dollars)
Sector # of Firms FY08 FY09 % change
Housing 157 $465.5 $405.4 -12.9%
Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters 6 369.7 375.2 1.5%
Department Stores 111 375.5 348.3 -7.2%
Grocery Stores 19 288.7 298.6 3.4%
Retail Trade 94 232.6 233.2 0.3%
Restaurants 71 124.0 120.9 -2.5%
Wholesale Trade 68 63.6 52.0 -18.3%
Gasoline Stations 17 48.2 47.3 -1.8%
Other 300 228.5 203.9 -10.7%
Total 843 $2,196.3 $2,084.9 -5.1%
• Housing-related taxable sales (20% of total) led the
weakness in growth in fiscal year 2009, declining 12.9
percent from fiscal year 2008.
• Taxable sales from department stores and restaurants (23%
of total), two sectors dependent on discretionary consumer
spending, declined 6.1 percent from fiscal year 2008.
• Adjusted for higher food prices, sales at grocery stores,
warehouse clubs, and supercenters (31 % of total) were
below fiscal year 2008 levels.
7
The Governor Ordered The Secretary Of
Finance In Mid-June To Conduct A
Reforecast Of Revenues...
• The August 2009 interim revenue forecast is based on the
updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the
Governor's Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) and the
Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates
(GACRE) .
- Global Insight's June 2009 standard forecast for the
U.S. and the associated outlook for Virginia were
presented to the GABE.
- The majority of the Board considered the standard
forecast for Virginia too high, with two members
recommending a lower growth alternative and six
supporting the standard forecast with downward
revisions.
- Based on GABE members' comments, the June
standard forecast for Virginia employment and wages &
salaries was reduced halfway to the "False Dawn"
pessimistic alternative forecast.
- The June GABE and pessimistic alternative forecasts
were presented to the Governor's Advisory Council on
Revenue Estimates (GACRE) on August 5, 2009.
8
Global Insight's June U.S. Standard
Forecast Is an Update to the November
Forecast...
• The June standard forecast update includes two additional
quarters of economic data.
- Real GDP reports for the fourth quarter of 2008 and the
first quarter of 2009 were more severe than the
November standard or November alternative low-growth
forecasts.
Real GDP
History and Forecast
Percent Annualized Percent Change
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
a.a a.s
3.7
3.4
2.8 2 y2 3.1
77 .5
1.5 11.4
,g 0.9 .f .0
0.1.4
0.0
-0.2 _O-a.S -0.
.1
-1.4
-2• -2.2 -2.2
-2.
~.
-4.0
-s.7
~'3 2009 Q2 Advance Est = -1.0%
2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2
^ Official (Nov'08) ^ June Standard
^ June Pessimistic (False Dawn) ^ June Optimistic (Green Shoots Sprout)
• The June standard forecast is rated at a 60% probability by
Global Insight - signaling a strong belief in the standard
forecast.
- The two alternative forecasts - "False Dawn" and "Green
Shoots Sprout" -are both weighted at a 20% probability.
9
In the June Standard Forecast, the U-
Shaped Growth Path for Virginia Has
Become Deeper...
• Employment and income growth are not expected to reach
a low point until fiscal year 2010, compared with fiscal year
2009 in the official forecast.
Key Virginia Economic Indicators
Official and June GABE Forecast
Annual Percent Change
Fiscal Year
08 09 ~ 10 11
12
Employment
Official (Nov '08)
June GABE
Personal Income
Official (Nov '08)
June GABE
Wages & Salaries
Official (Nov '08)
June GABE
Average Wage
Official (Nov '08)
June GABE
0.9 (0.6) I (0.2) 0.8 1.5
0.6 (1.4) (1.8) 0.5 1.5
4.4 2.1 2.3 3.4 4.2
4.5 2.3 1.2 2.8 3.9
4.3 2.6 3.2 3.2 4.0
4.4 2.2 1.3 2.8 4.1
3.4 3.2 3.4 2.3 2.5
3.8 3.7 3.1 2.3 2.6
10
The August Interim Revenue Forecast
Incorporates Pessimism From The GA CRE
Meeting...
• Based on GACRE comments:
- The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax
revenue was adopted.
- Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect
weak taxable profits.
- Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of
the housing market has occurred in Virginia.
• The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the
standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook.
- Payroll withholding and retail sales tax - 80% of
general fund revenues -are forecast to track to the
pessimistic alternative scenario.
11
In the August Interim Revenue Forecast,
Total General Fund Revenues Have Been
Reduced by $1.2 Billion...
August Interim Revenue Forecast
(millions of dollars)
Asa%
of Total FY09
Major Source Revenues Variance
Withholding 62.6 % $ (15.9)
Nonwithholding 15.4 (37.9)
Refunds (11.8) (162.4)
Net Individual 66.2 (216.2)
Sales 20.2 (57.5)
Corporate 4.8 (37.0)
Wills (Recordation) 2.0 16.2
Insurance 1.9 (2.5)
All Other Revenue 5.0 (1.9)
Fiscal Year 2010
Official June Annual
Forecast Forecast Change Growth
$ 9,474.4 $ 9,331.8 $ (142.6) 2.1
2,326.9 1,904.4 (422.5) (17.6)
(1,786.2) (1,944.4) (158.2) (1.2)
10,015.1 9,291.8 (723.3) (2.0)
3,050.1 2,784.7 (265.4) (4.1)
724.0 662.2 (61.8) 2.2
298.1 284.0 (14.1) (9.6)
283.1 255.5 (27.6) 0.2
755.8 665.4 (90.4) (6.7)
Total (Base) 100.0 % $ (298.8) ~ $ 15,126.2 $ 13,943.6 $ (1,182.6) (2.6) %~
Tax Policy Actions
Tax Amnesty
Sales Tax Remittance
38.0 38.0 0.0 0.0
97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0
Total Revenues ~ $ 15,262.0 $ 14,079.4 $ (1,182.6) (1.6) °/d
• Total general fund revenues are expected to decline for the
second year in a row, falling 1.6 percent (-2.6 percent
excluding tax policy actions).
12
Average Sale Price in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond
Levels
Seasonally-adjusted 2-quarter moving average
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100 000
$550,000
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
99g1 99g3 OOg1 OOg3 01g1 01g3 02g1 02g3 03g1 03g3 04g1 04g3 05g1 05g3 06g1 06g3 07g1 07g3 08g1 08g3 09g1
-+-Northern Virginia tHampton Roads tRichmond ~% share of total home sales in Vrginia)
39% 22% 11%
13
U.S. and Virginia Employment
Fiscal Year 1991 -Fiscal Year 2009
(Thousands of Jobs -- Seasonally-Adjusted)
FY U.S. Gain/Loss FY Virginia Gain/Loss
90 109, 817 90 2, 905
91 108, 283 -1, 534 91 2, 828 -77
92 108, 640 357 92 2, 840 12
93 110,663 2,023 93 2,914 74
94 114,136 3,473 94 3, 005 91
95 117,186 3,050 95 3,075 70
96 119,647 2,461 96 3,129 55
97 122,644 2,997 97 3,225 96
98 125,851 3,207 98 3,317 92
99 128,851 3,000 99 3,403 86
00 131, 839 2, 988 00 3, 518 115
01 132, 047 208 01 3, 527 9
02 130,373 -1,674 02 3,497 -30
03 129,839 -534 03 3,487 -10
04 131, 442 1, 603 04 3, 579 92
05 133,624 2,182 05 3,658 79
06 135,956 2,332 06 3,733 75
07 137, 645 1, 689 07 3, 763 30
08 137,356 -289 08 3,761 -2
09 131,735 -5,621 09 3,655 -106
Note: Values reflect June monthly level, with gain/loss the net change from the prior year.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
14